Analysis

Oklahoma City is 6-1 straight-up and against the spread over the last seven meetings in this cross-conference matchup. The Thunder have won the last three meetings by an average of 20.0 points per game. Each of the last five meetings have gone over the total. Both teams are on equal rest after playing on Saturday. Oklahoma City has dropped back-to-back games against Dallas and Houston, failing to hit the 100-point mark in either contest. Cleveland returns home after splitting a weekend road trip at Atlanta (loss) and Milwaukee (win). Oklahoma City's Alex Caruso and Chet Holmgren are both expected to miss this contest, joining the long-term injuries to Jalen Williams and Cason Wallace. Cavaliers' guard Peyton Watson is questionable as he deals with a hamstring issue. Watson has been held to a total of nine points on 3-of-14 shooting from the field in Cleveland's last two games. Those that have been reading The Basketball GoldSheet newsletter over the past two seasons know that we are not high on trusting Cleveland as a home favorite (21-29 ATS at home last season), but that's the only direction we can look in this contest until the Thunder snap out of this funk. Oklahoma City has built such a high level of trust among fans and bettors over the past few years, but this current edition doesn't have much to offer on offense. The rest of the NBA now has plenty of film on what Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is looking to do, and if a Robin doesn't appear to his Batman, Oklahoma City is likely in for a tough stretch until Caruso and Holmgren return. Odds makers have opened this number in line with our power ratings, but we may not have seen OKC's floor yet.
Play Cleveland Cavaliers

Detroit is 6-0 straight-up, 4-2 against the spread over the last six meetings in this Eastern Conference matchup. The Pistons earned a 97-89 home win over the Hornets last Wednesday, barely covering the closing point spread as a 7.5-point favorite. All six of those wins have stayed under the total as Charlotte has scored an average of 95.8 points per game in those losses. Detroit is 5-1 straight-up and against the spread following Friday's 16-point road win in Brooklyn. The Hornets are looking to snap a three-game losing skid after dropping contests to Washington and Philadelphia over the weekend. Charlotte is finally going to get some good news on the injury front as guard Coby White will make his season debut in this contest. White scored 17.4 points per game last season and was a big reason why the Hornets were comfortable letting LaMelo Ball go to the Timberwolves in the offseason. Detroit continues to play without center Jalen Duren, who is dealing with a leg injury. Buyer beware when it comes to jumping on the Hornets' totals train at this point. Home games against Atlanta, Miami and Washington were all lined above 225 a week ago, and now we're looking at a total that's flirting with 210. The downward move is certainly justified, but with White returning to the Hornets' lineup, there's not much room to go. Charlotte has played at the slowest pace in the league thus far, but that is likely to change. We mentioned that each of the last six meetings between these teams have stayed under the total. That's true, but three of those six games would have comfortably cleared this opening total of 211.
Play the Over

Atlanta is 4-1 straight-up and against the spread over the last five meetings. Eight of the last ten meetings have gone over the total. The Hawks scored an average of 128.0 points per game in the three contests last season. Indiana is on the second leg of a back-to-back after falling at home to the previously-winless Nets on Sunday. Half (35) of the Pacers' field goal attempts (70) came from the three-point line as Indiana struggled to get anything going in the paint. Starting forwards Jay Huff, Pascal Siakam and Kelly Oubre Jr. combined to shoot 9-of-24 (37.5-percent) from the field and the Pacers finished -6 on the glass. Hawks' forward Jalen Johnson is listed as questionable as he deals with an ankle injury. Johnson played a season-low 28 minutes in Saturday's loss to the Pelicans. The loss of Tyrese Haliburton (hamstring) has certainly hurt the Pacers' offense, but there is still a path toward the over in this matchup. Atlanta has played at the sixth-fastest pace thus far, and with Indiana on the second leg of a back-to-back, the Hawks will likely be looking to test the Pacers' legs. As we mentioned, Atlanta had no problem putting points on the board in the three matchups between these teams last season. Both teams sit in the bottom half of the league in defensive rebounding rate, so there may be some easy second-chance opportunities off missed shots. We're expecting to see some points.
Play the Over

The Knicks have won each of the last 14 meetings in this Big Apple showdown. New York won last year's four meetings by an average of 26.0 points per game. The Nets are on the second leg of a back-to-back after earning their first win of the season on Sunday against the Pacers. Brooklyn’s defense held Indiana to 40.0-percent shooting from the field with only two fast-break points. Day'Ron Sharpe did a nice job on the glass, pulling down 13 rebounds to go along with his 15 points. Four Nets played 30+ minutes on Sunday, led by 37 minutes from Julius Randle. Nets' guard Egor Demin missed yesterday’s win over the Pacers with a leg injury, and he is questionable to return for this one. The defending champs are just 2-4 straight-up, 1-5 against the spread following Friday's loss to the Sixers. With all due respect to Brooklyn, the Nets represent a steep drop in class compared to the teams New York has faced thus far. New York had two extra days to prep for this one, and with no games on Tuesday, there's no real need to save anything in the tank. This was a nightmare matchup for Brooklyn last season (make that the last four seasons), and the Nets are catching an angry Knicks team at the wrong time on Monday. Brooklyn enters this contest bottom-5 in the NBA in offensive rating, turnover rate and effective field goal shooting.
Play New York Knicks

Orlando has won nine of the last ten meetings in this Southeast Division matchup. The Magic are on the second leg of a back-to-back following Sunday's 108-97 home loss to the Celtics. Orlando's defense did a nice job disrupting what Boston wants to do on offense (12-of-44 shooting from beyond the arc), but the Magic couldn't get anything going on their side. Desmond Bane and Tristan da Silva combined for ten made three-pointers, but the rest of the Magic roster shot 33.3-percent from the field. Bane and Franz Wagner both played 40 minutes on Sunday, while Wendell Carter Jr. and da Silva each played over 35. Washington has not played since Friday's 16-point home win over the Hornets. Four of the Wizards' last five games have stayed under the total, and that is the direction we’re looking in this one. After playing so many minutes last night against the Celtics, the Magic probably aren’t looking for a track meet on Monday. Wizards' center Alex Sarr is listed as questionable with a knee issue, and his status is important to monitor. Sarr was held to three points on 1-of-5 shooting from the field against the Hornets on Friday after scoring 18 points in the previous game against Cleveland. The Wizards' offense has certainly looked cleaner this year with Trae Young and Anthony Davis providing veteran leadership, but the Wizards are still bottom-10 in assist rate and last in the NBA in offensive rebounding rate. There's room for Washington to get better on offense, which is a nice sign for a team that is top-10 in defensive rating through the first two weeks.
Play the Under

Chicago has won four of the last five meetings, but the Sixers flexed some muscle by scoring 157 points in their last meeting in March. Philadelphia is 6-1 following Saturday's five-point win in Charlotte. All eyes have been on Jaylen Brown and LeBron James, but the acquisition of Anfernee Simons is also providing dividends. Simons has averaged 20.0 points per game across the last three contests, including a 5-for-9 effort from three-point range against Charlotte. Sixers' center Joel Embiid is listed as questionable as he deals with a sore foot. Embiid had ten points, seven rebounds and seven assists in Friday's win over the Knicks, but did not play on Saturday against the Hornets. Chicago is looking to snap a four-game losing skid, but the Bulls did stay within the number as a 'dog against the Knicks and Celtics over the last two games. We have some interest in Philadelphia in the first half. Embiid is questionable, but LeBron James is expected to play tonight. We mentioned that Chicago covered the spread as a 14.5-point 'dog in Boston on Friday. Well, Boston had a 78-49 lead at halftime in that game before sitting its starters for the second half. We could certainly see a similar scenario tonight. Chicago has allowed an average of 64.7 points in the first half this season.
Play Philadelphia 76ers 1H

Home court advantage hasn't meant much in this Western Conference matchup over the last few seasons. The road team has won eight of the last ten meetings. Sacramento covered the spread as a 'dog in all three meetings last year, including a pair of outright upsets. Dallas had the weekend off, but if you asked the Mavericks, they probably would have preferred to keep playing. Dallas had a fantastic run last week, pulling off three-straight upsets over the Heat, Thunder and Rockets - all as a 5+ point underdog. Mavs' guard Kyrie Irving is listed as questionable as he continues to recover from a knee injury. Irving scored 35 points with nine assists while shooting 12-of-19 from the field in Friday's win over the Rockets. Monday's situation looks quite a bit different than what the Mavericks have seen thus far. Dallas has been an underdog of at least 5.5 points in every game this season, and now the Mavericks are being asked to clear a double-digit spread as a home favorite. You have to go back to the final week of the 2024-25 season to find the last time Dallas was anywhere near this big of a favorite. Is it warranted? Probably. The Kings are still winless this season and they are 1-5 against the spread. Sacramento's lone cover this season (as a 9.5-point home 'dog vs Portland) came by a single bucket. Backing the Kings has not been a fun proposition up to this point, but we have this game lined closer to -8 and can only take the points with Sacramento. The Kings have actually been favored in three of their last four trips to Dallas, so Sacramento being a double-digit 'dog on Monday is quite the steep adjustment.
Play Sacramento Kings

The Timberwolves won both meetings last season, but Milwaukee stayed comfortably within the number as a double-digit road 'dog in Minnesota last December. Four of the last five meetings have stayed under the total, and the Bucks covered the spread as a 'dog in all four of those "under" results. Both teams are on equal rest after playing on Saturday. Minnesota has dropped three of its last four games as the T-Wolves adjust to life without Anthony Edwards. Minnesota's last four games have all gone over the total, including Saturday's ten-point road loss in San Antonio. Milwaukee is just 1-5 straight-up, 2-4 against the spread this season. Five of the Bucks' six games have gone over the total. Some early money has shown on the over once again, but we're ready to call this the sell-high spot. Rudy Gobert did not play in Saturday's loss to San Antonio, which allowed the Spurs to force-feed Victor Wembanyama to the tune of 43 points on 34 field goal attempts. Gobert is back tonight and Milwaukee doesn't have a 7-foot-4 alien on its team. The Bucks play fast, but they are 24th in offensive rating, 23rd in assist rate, 21st in effective field goal shooting and 25th in true shooting percentage. This is the type of team that Minnesota can handle with relative ease. Let's not forget, the T-Wolves held Miami, Orlando and Toronto to an average of 97.7 points per game before Edwards' injury.
Play the Under

The Grizzlies and Pelicans split their four meetings at two wins apiece last season. This was actually a very competitive matchup with all four games decided by single digits, including a double-overtime affair last November. Both teams are on equal rest after playing on Saturday. Memphis has been the league's biggest surprise thus far, going 6-0 straight-up and against the spread to open the season. The Grizzlies' strength of schedule leaves a lot to be desired (two games vs Sacramento and two games vs Utah), but nonetheless, that's still a very impressive start and those teams are on a somewhat-comparable level to the Pelicans team that Memphis will see tonight. New Orleans hits the road after a similar stretch that also included games against Utah (one-point loss) and Sacramento (12-point win). Our numbers are in line with where this game has opened so we're not showing much value on either side, but we're inclined to take the points with New Orleans. We don't want to make too many excuses for the Pelicans, but playing a road back-to-back at altitude in Salt Lake City and Denver is NOT an easy way to kick off the season. Now that New Orleans is back in a little bit of a routine, the Pelicans have the opportunity to stack some wins against comfortable competition over the next week or so.
Play New Orleans Pelicans

These Western Conference foes just met last Wednesday with San Antonio earning a 117-111 win in overtime. Utah comfortably stayed within the number as a 13.5-point home 'dog. Even with that overtime period, last week's game comfortably stayed under the total as we've now seen four-straight "under" results between the Jazz and Spurs. Both teams are on equal rest after playing on Saturday. Utah is looking to snap a four-game losing skid, and this season has gotten off to a rough start in Salt Lake City. The Jazz are 1-5 straight-up and against the spread, and five of those six games were played at home where Utah enjoys a strong home court advantage. With a lengthy five-game homestand now in the rearview mirror, things are only going to get tougher for this squad that was supposed to be making a leap in 2026. San Antonio is riding a four-game winning streak, including a ten-point home win over the Timberwolves on Saturday. Utah's only real hope in this contest is for a reduced workload for Spurs' center Victor Wembanyama tonight. With Rudy Gobert out, Wembanyama attempted 34(!) field goal attempts against Minnesota over the weekend, scoring 43 points in 34 minutes. While we appreciate the show, Mitch Johnson probably doesn't want to see too many nights where Wembanyama is taking 40-percent of the team's shots. San Antonio has a date with suddenly-red-hot Dallas on Wednesday, so we would imagine that Coach Johnson will try and keep something in the tank for that one. Utah may be able to sneak in the back door after the benches have emptied.

The Celtics and Rockets have split their four meetings over the last two seasons with the road team winning all four contests. Boston is on the second leg of a back-to-back following a 108-97 road win in Orlando on Sunday.Jayson Tatum led the way with 32 points, but the Celtics were limited to 12-of-44 (27.3-percent) shooting from the three-point line. No one played more than Tatum's 34 minutes, so Boston did a pretty nice job of spreading the minutes around. Center Mitchell Robinson did not play on Sunday, so he is presumably rested and available for this one. Houston is 6-1 straight-up and against the spread this season following Saturday's 21-point home win over Oklahoma City. When these teams met in Houston in February, the closing total was 210.5 (and that game stayed under comfortably). We're looking at a total that is now almost ten points higher, and we're struggling to see the justification. When Robinson is on the court, he's there for defense and rebounding. Boston attempted 51 three-point attempts in that contest as 56.7-percent of the Celtics' field goal attempts came from beyond the arc. These teams played at the two slowest paces in the NBA last season, and both are right back at the bottom of the table in 2026.
Play the Under

Since the 2024-25 season, the home team is 7-1 straight-up, 6-2 against the spread in this Western Conference matchup. Denver has scored an average of 135.8 points per game against the Blazers in four home contests, compared to 124.3 points per game in the four contests played in Portland. So home court advantage has mattered quite a bit in this matchup. Nine of the last ten meetings have gone over the total. Last year's four meetings saw an average of 246.3 points per game. One of those games went to overtime, but they still had the closing total cleared by double digits in regulation without needing the extra frame. Denver returns home after a pair of much-needed wins over New Orleans and Phoenix. This is the second game of a somewhat-lengthy road trip for the Blazers, who got the party started with a 22-point road win over Utah on Saturday. Portland's first three road games this season have seen an average of 238.3 points per game, and the series trends between these teams are hard to ignore. Denver has scored an average of 127.5 points in its first two home games this season as the Nuggets continue to run at a brisk pace.
Play the Over

The Clippers are 7-1 straight-up, 5-3 against the spread over the last eight meetings in this cross-conference matchup. Los Angeles won both meetings last season, including a 25-point home win in the Intuit Dome. This was supposed to be Kawhi Leonard's return to LA, but he is out for the next two months with a knee injury. Both teams are on the second leg of a back-to-back. Toronto's West Coast road trip got off to a sour note on Sunday with a six-point loss to the Lakers. Los Angeles jumped out to a 13-point lead after the first quarter and put things on cruise control after that. After trailing by 26, Toronto cut the hole to five in the final minute but never got over the hump. Raptors' center Jakob Poeltl missed last night's contest with shoulder bursitis. The Raptors' last three games have all gone over the total, and with Poeltl presumably out of the lineup once again, that's the only direction we can look. As we go to print on Monday morning, we're getting some late-breaking news that Clippers' forward Brandon Ingram may be making his season debut tonight. Ingram, the former Raptor, has been working toward a return from an Achilles injury. He was originally scheduled to see some action with the G League's San Diego Clippers this week, but he's already been recalled to Los Angeles. Initial reports don't seem overly optimistic that Ingram will actually take the court tonight, but the Clippers will certainly welcome him when it happens.
Play the Over

These teams just met last week with Phoenix earning a 131-122 home win over the Warriors. Phoenix has a significant rest advantage in this contest, considering the Suns haven't played since Friday while the Warriors are on the second leg of a back-to-back after beating the Clippers on Sunday. We're going to stay in the prop market for this contest, looking for Suns' point guard Devin Booker to go over 32.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-125). The Warriors have given up the most points and fifth-most rebounds and assists to opposing point guards this season. Booker had 57 pts + rebs + assists vs Golden State in that win on October 24. Booker is shooting 50-percent overall and 91-percent from the free throw line this season. In three H2H meetings vs Golden State last year, Booker averaged 39.4 pts + rebs + assists. Play Devin Booker Over 32.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists

Los Angeles has won-and-covered each of the last three meetings. Each of the last four meetings have gone over the total, including a pair of high-scoring shootouts last season. The Lakers are on the second leg of a back-to-back after beating Toronto at home on Sunday. The purple-and-gold played with fire a little bit, letting a 26-point lead bleed down to five in the final minute before eventually sealing the deal. Los Angeles was out-scored 43-27 in the fourth quarter as the Lakers probably began to turn their attention toward this one. Luka Doncic finished with 45 points on just 23 field goal attempts while going 8-of-12 from the three-point line. This is the first game of a lengthy West Coast road trip for the Heat, who have slowly begun to turn their season around. After four-straight losses to open the campaign, Miami has won back-to-back games over the Hawks and Pacers. Giannis Antetokounmpo, Bam Adebayo and Klay Thompson all cleared the 25-point mark against Indiana on Friday, which was Miami's best performance of the season. Our power ratings are in line with where this game has opened, but we have some mild interest in Miami. This is the Lakers' eighth game of the season already (for reference, Phoenix has only played four). Los Angeles hasn't had any real break since the season began. Walker Kessler played a total of five games for the Jazz last season, and now he's averaging over 30 minutes per game with no rest. The Lakers better bring their running shoes tonight.
Play Miami Heat