Analysis

At Capital One Arena, Washington, DC. We’ll start to find out a lot more about these national contenders on Sunday after each opened with effective scrimmages (two in the case of Virginia) last week. Style-wise, however, John Calipari’s Razorbacks are always a unique test because of their relentless pace and athleticism, which will challenge Ryan Odom’s Wahoos. Already, Coach Cal’s highest-touted frosh are making an impact, especially blue-chipper G Jordan Smith Jr, a D.C. product for whom this date at Cap One Arena is extra-special, and off of a 20-point showcase in the opener vs. Arkansas-Pine Bluff while alleviating some of the fears of replacing the explosive Darius Acuff Jr (25.2 ppg last season), now property of the NBA Sacramento Kings. Another ballyhooed frosh, 7-foot Finnish frontliner Miikka Muurinen, also scored in double digits in the opener when Arkansas was running at full-speed, with no opening-night jitters. Meanwhile, G Jeremiah Wilkinson (via Georgia; 17.4 ppg last season) was one of the top prizes of the portal and hit the ground running with 23 points. On the other side, a key for Odom will be soph G Chance Mallory, who has moved to the point this season with an edict from Odom to look for more shots while he’s at it–so far so good at 14 ppg. Yet ACC observers note that recent UVa victims Drexel and Northeastern are both slower...and nothing like what the Cavs will be seeing here on Sunday. Mid-Atlantic sources are also waiting to see a bit more from UC Irvine transfer G Jurian Dixon, one of the Big West’s top threats last season when scoring at a brisk 15.3 pg clip, and a prize portal addition but only getting about 14 minutes of court time in the Cavs’ first two games. We could see both of these teams deep into March, and while it’s tough to separate them at the moment, it’s a good bet we’ll see a fast pace after these two scored better than 171 pg between them last season.
Play the Over

At Tahoe Blue Event Center, Stateline, Nevada, The new campaign has the feeling of a testimonial in Reno, as HC Steve Alford has announced his retirement, effective end of season. While the locals are bandying about all sorts of names as potential successors (including former HC Mark Fox), Mountain West scouts suspect Alford’s final Wolf Pack edition might be sneaky-good. Though without some key cogs like Gs Corey Camper and Tayshawn Comer who helped pace last year’s edition to the NIT quarterfinals before losing honorably to eventual champ Auburn, the new Nevada is nonetheless loaded with athleticism which was on display in the opening night blowout of Robert Morris, when it was 6-9 holdover Elijah Price starring vs. the Colonials, netting a team-high 19 points. It’s the new blood in the backcourt that bears watching, however, as transfers Styles Phipps (Pepperdine), Peter Bandelj (Cal Poly), and TJ Coulter (juco) combined for 35 points in the opener and have drawn plenty of oohs and ahhs from regional insiders. Now, Sunday foe Saint Mary’s is a step or two (or three) above the home team of the Pittsburgh Airport (that’s RMU), and opened the post-Randy Bennett era in smashing style when topping NIT finalist Illinois State and then routing annual Summit contender North Dakota State by 41 last week. Both of those games were in friendly Moraga, however, and we need to see a bit more evidence away from home that the Gaels can maintain their torrid 58% FG shooting (and 50% beyond the arc) from the first two games under new HC and alum Mickey McConnell. The mix is mostly new around holdover guards Joshua Dent and Mantas Juvenas, and the Lake Tahoe venue is a lot more convenient for the Wolf Pack, less than an hour away in Reno.
Play Nevada

As the historic Palestra in Philadelphia apparently isn’t an appropriate venue for Big Five games these days unless home team Penn is involved, we are very glad to see Pitt and Penn State (which usually plays once per year in Philly at the old arena) doing battle within its confines on Sunday. The Palestra date, however, is a secondary consideration for Panthers HC Jeff Capel, feeling some heat to get Pitt to the Dance for the first time in four years, and likely still on the job only because of a hefty buyout that AD Allen Greene had no desire to activate after a yawning 13-20 SU mark last season. Having been forced to jettison his assistants (including brother Jason) confirms that it’s win-or-else time for Capel, who hit the portal and recruiting trail with a vengeance to come up with a new mix. It’s early yet, but so far so good, with 6-9 frosh F Chase Foster especially impressive, scoring 20+ in both of last week’s romps past Buffalo and Rider, while Capel’s portal brigade has wasted no time making an impact. Especially another 6-9 frontliner, Baye Ndongo via Georgia Tech, a double-digit scorer in each of his three seasons with the Yellow Jackets and producing immediately for Capel at 17.5 ppg, with 6-6 wing Jonathan Powell (via North Carolina) and 6-4 G Nathan Georgia (via Syracuse) also producing early and bringing ACC experience to the Steel City. Meanwhile, Mike Rhoades needed to do something drastic at Penn State, too, in hopes of reversing the downward trend that included a 3-17 league mark last term, and hit the portal with his own abandon after his traditional recruiting methods, focusing on frosh, were not delivering. So, it’s now a far-flung group of transfers at the core of the Happy Valley hoopsters, but after a romp past weak Canisus, Penn State was up against the wall vs. Chattanooga and fortunate to escape. Frosh F Rocco Prkacin (20.5 ppg) has been an early surprise, but the narrow escape vs. the Mocs might be warning sign, and regional observers expect Capel’s newcomers to make more substantial contributions.
Play Pitt

At Tahoe Blue Event Center, Stateline, Nevada. Having noted high-intensity Eric Musselman’s track record, some Big Ten observers were openly wondering if his Trojans tuned him out at some point last season, which happened at previous stops Nevada and Arkansas. If true, it was happening a bit sooner for Mus at USC than those preceding assignments, but the other viable explanation for last year’s downturn was a spate of injuries that sidetracked a team that was 8-0 and in the rankings into early December but would slip all the way to 7-13 in conference play. Now, Big Ten insiders are monitoring the Trojan situation closely, but for the moment the waters seem calm with all hands on deck. Such as G Rodney Rice (20.3 ppg before getting hurt early last season; scored 15 last Monday vs. Milwaukee) and explosive wing Alijah Arenas (missed half of last season; scored 21 in the opener), but it’s the frosh Ratliff twins (Theo’s sons 6-11 Adonis and 7-foot Darius) generating the most buzz after combing for 39 points in the romp past Milwaukee in the lid-lifter. Thus, the matchups look far more daunting in Lake Tahoe for Wichita than in the opener vs. a smaller CS Northridge, who couldn’t impede 7-2 Will Berg as he was on his way to 26 points. That won’t be as easy vs. SC’s bigs, and there’s another problem for Paul Mills’ explosive backcourt against this foe, also giving up several inches across the perimeter to Musselman’s lengthy collections of 6-5 and-taller wings. (To wit: Shocker top scorer G Kenyon Giles is plenty explosive but also just 5'10.). Remember, the Trojans proved tough in November special-venue events last year, winning the Maui Classic, and have the look of another fast start this season.
Play USC

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