Analysis

This game is being played at Arena CDMX in Mexico City. This is the fifth-straight year that the NBA has played a regular season game in Mexico. Saturday's contest marks the first of three international contests this season, with the Spurs and Pelicans heading to Paris and Manchester in January. Unlike some international venues, Arena CDMX is actually built for basketball and serves as the home of the Mexico City Capitanes of the G League.Detroit earned a 122-110 win over the Mavericks during last year's Día de Muertos celebration. Both teams are on equal rest after playing on Wednesday. Indiana snapped its five-game losing skid with a 107-103 road win at Memphis. Five of the Pacers' last six games have stayed under the total. Denver's had a rocky start to the 2026-27 campaign, but the Nuggets are 3-1 straight-up and against the spread over the last four games including a 19-point home win over Toronto on Wednesday. Given the extra time to prep and the neutral site venue, we're inclined to trust that Rick Carlisle will have a solid gameplan for this contest and we'll take the points with Indiana. The Pacers have gone 5-4 against the spread in the last nine meetings with Denver, so this hasn't been a one-sided affair. Even though the Nuggets have picked up some wins recently, this is still a team that's sitting 19th in net rating, 24th in defensive rating, 21st in rebounding rate and 14th in turnover rate. Those figures have to improve before we're ready to lay this kind of price with Denver.
Play Indiana Pacers

Atlanta has won each of the last five meetings. The first three contests between the Hawks and Nets last year stayed under the total before Atlanta exploded with 141 points to send the final contest over the number. Brooklyn has covered the number in four of its last five games, including a pair of outright upsets over Indiana and Charlotte. The Nets have turned up the defense over the last week, holding their last four opponents to an average of 101.8 points per game. Brooklyn is on the front leg of a back-to-back and will travel to Dallas on Sunday. Atlanta is on the second leg of a back-to-back after beating Washington at home on Friday. Jalen Johnson missed his third-straight game with an ankle injury, but the Hawks did a nice job of spreading the scoring around without him. Atlanta shot 53.1-percent from the floor against the Wizards with seven players finishing in double figures. Brooklyn has covered the spread in all four of its home games thus far, but we're comfortable laying this number with Atlanta. Keep an eye on the Hawks' availability report to see if they elect to sit anyone on the second leg of a back-to-back, but this is a matchup that Atlanta shouldn't have much trouble with. Brooklyn has lost its last three trips to Atlanta by an average of 8.7 points per game. No one played over 35 minutes in the Hawks' win over Washington on Friday, so fatigue shouldn't be TOO big of an issue. Brooklyn had the second-highest turnover rate in the league last season and the Nets are bottom-5 in that category already in 2026. That's going to be a problem against the Hawks' aggressive defense.
Play Atlanta Hawks

Oklahoma City is 8-0 straight-up, 6-2 against the spread over the last eight meetings. The Thunder have won those eight contests by an average of 20.8 points per game. Both teams are on the second leg of a back-to-back. Washington was swept in a two-game series against the Hawks, while Oklahoma City handled business in Memphis. The Thunder have won-and-covered each of their last three games, showing signs that they will be able to keep the ship afloat while navigating a tough stretch of injuries. OKC held a 22-point lead at halftime in Memphis last night and put the game on cruise control after that. Ajay Mitchell played a game-high 30 minutes as the Thunder did a nice job rotating its lineup. Anthony Davis did not play for the Wizards in last night's loss to the Hawks, and his presence was missed on the defensive end as Atlanta scored 139 points and shot over 53-percent from the field. Ultimately, with both teams in the same general situation, we believe this spread is too high and we're looking to back the Wizards plus the points. Washington is probably a little disappointed to be sitting at 4-5 at this point of the season, but only one of the Wizards' five losses have come by more than ten points. Oklahoma City just closed as a 3.5-point home favorite against the Cavaliers on Wednesday, and now the Thunder are laying -11.5 at home to the Wizards. Is Washington eight points worse than the Cavs are right now? We can't get on board with that (yet).
Play Washington Wizards

This will be the first meeting between the Knicks and Cavs since New York swept Cleveland out of last year's playoffs. The Knicks won those four contests by an average of 19.3 points per game. During the regular season, the home team protected its court in all three contests, including New York's historic come-from-behind win on Christmas (trailed by 16 with eight minutes left). New York has won four of its last five games, but the Knicks are just 2-6 against the spread this season. The offense had its best performance of the season on Wednesday, scoring 84 points in the first half against the Bulls en route to a 30-point home win. Cleveland is on the second leg of a back-to-back after crushing the Sixers at home on Friday. Peyton Watson made a return to the Cavs' lineup, and he made an impact on the defensive end with nine rebounds as the Sixers shot 36.5-percent from the field. Some early money has shown on the under in this contest, and we agree with it. The Knicks are playing at the second-slowest pace in the league, and they clearly had a strong gameplan for defending Cleveland's offense during last year's postseason. New York has allowed an average of 97.7 points per game over its last three contests. The Knicks already have two losses to Philadelphia and one loss to Boston, so they need to start picking up some marquee wins over other contenders in the East because these results are going to matter in April.
Play the Under

Golden State is 4-1 straight-up and against the spread over the last five meetings. Both teams are on equal rest after playing on Thursday. Golden State has won-and-covered each of its last six games. We tip our cap to the Warriors for the strong run and we will be giving them a pretty nice upgrade in our next power ratings update, but in our opinion, half of those wins had more to do with struggles from the opposite side compared to things that Golden State actually did well. Miami is 3-6 straight-up, 2-7 against the spread. Phoenix is 2-5 straight-up, 1-6 against the spread. The Clippers haven't won since opening night. So how much credit should we be giving Golden State for these recent wins? Orlando has dropped its last three, but the Magic have played a tough strength of schedule thus far. This is still a team that has wins over New York and Toronto. They trailed Boston by four with under four minutes remaining before the Celtics eventually pulled away. The Magic don't have much to offer on offense at the moment, but this spread is climbing a little too far in Golden State's favor. The Warriors are outside the top-10 in both net rating and defensive rating. Less than a week ago, Golden State closed -1.5 vs the Clippers and -2.5 vs Phoenix, and now the Warriors need to win by 3+ possessions against a perennial playoff participant. That's too big of a jump, in our opinion.
Play Orlando Magic

Houston is 8-0 straight-up, 6-2 against the spread over the last eight meetings. The under cashed in three of the four meetings last year, and the lone game that went over the total only did so by a bucket. The Suns scored an average of 98.0 points per game in those four contests. Houston hasn't played since Wednesday, so the Rockets should be well-rested for this one. Wednesday's loss to Minnesota dropped the Rockets to 7-2 straight-up and against the spread this season. Phoenix snapped a four-game losing streak with a 117-144 home win over the Magic on Thursday. That was the Suns' first point spread cover of the campaign. We are comfortable laying this number with Houston on the road. Playing in Phoenix clearly hasn't been an issue for Houston over the last few seasons. The Rockets are 4-0 straight-up and against the spread in their last four trips to Arizona, with an average margin of victory at 21.0 points per game. Phoenix is 29th in defensive rating thus far with only the Chicago Bulls playing worse on the defensive end. That's a recipe for disaster against a Rockets team that enters this contest top-5 in net rating, offensive rating, rebounding rate, effective field goal shooting and true shooting percentage.
Play Houston Rockets

San Antonio went 4-1 straight-up and against the spread in their playoff series last year. Portland stole Game 2 in San Antonio as a double-digit 'dog, but the Spurs handled business from there. San Antonio went 2-1 straight-up and against the spread in their three regular season meetings, with Portland once again stealing a game in San Antonio as a large 'dog. Both teams are on the second leg of a back-to-back. San Antonio earned its seventh-straight win with a 15-point road win at Sacramento on Friday. The Spurs are just 1-4 against the spread over their last five contests as oddsmakers are asking San Antonio to cover some lofty numbers this season. Portland returns home after a successful four-game road trip (3-1 straight-up and against the spread), but the Blazers dropped the last game to the Lakers on Friday. San Antonio's success in this series is hard to ignore and the Spurs did a much better job managing minutes last night. No one played more than 28 minutes. Victor Wembanyama, Stephon Castle,Devin Vassell and Dylan Harper all scored 19+ points in a balanced effort. The same cannot be said in Portland where Deni Avdija and Damian Lillard each played over 37 minutes last night against the Lakers.
Play San Antonio Spurs