Analysis

We've seen enough from IPFW and long-serving head coach Jon Coffman not to underestimate the Mastodons, who usually feature solid work in the backcourt and are used to going out on the road as an underdog in pre-Horizon play, and occasionally pulling the surprise (as the win at Notre Dame last December). Word from Fort Wayne is that Coffman is cooking up another potential contender this season thanks in part to star G DeAndre Craig Jr. resisting the temptations of the portal to return to IPFW, where he will likely be on a short list of Horizon MVP candidates after exhibiting superb all-around play last season (14 ppg, 2.6 apg). Indeed, it's been an assembly line of star guards in recent years for Coffman, with the likes of Jalrred Godfrey, Jalen Jackson, Rasheed Bello, and Corey Hadnot II each all-league performers and paving the way for Craig, though Coffman also has more size than usual with 6-9 refshirt freshman Quentin Morgan and bullish 6-6 Manhattan transfer PF Anthoiny Isaac, Jr new frontliners to watch. The Mastrodons' historic competence makes the Iron Dukes a tougher sell at this price, especially as head coach Dru Joyce III basically has a new team surrounding All-A-10 guard Tarence Guinyard (16.6 ppg LY), whose eligibility was restored in summer and means that Joyce wouldn't be entering the season minus his top eight scorers from last season. Still, this looks like a work in progress on the Bluff with several transfers now in the mix, and it might be a while before we'd be comfy laying double-digits with Duquesne.
Play IPFW

With his job potentially on the line last season, long-serving CS Fullerton head coach Dedrique Taylor rolled the dice and radically adjusted the recipe at Titan Gym, installing a go-go offense full of volume shooters that scored 83 points per game after putting on the floor one of the nation's most-pedestrian offenses in the previous season. It was remarkable stuff, really, tripling the win total (from 6 to 18), with Taylor turning over a lot of rocks in the portal to find a few short-term nuggets from wherever he could find them (D-II, NAIA, you name it). This season, Taylor has gone back to D-II for reinforcements, with the headliner likely to be rangy 6-7 Central Oklahoma transfer Matthew WIllenborg, off of a 20 ppg season that included four efforts of 30+points. Willenborg and others will join returning starters G Christian Williams (9.2 ppg) and 6-10 rim protector Kendrick De Luna, plus several rotation pieces from a year ago. That might be enough to cause some opening-night annoyance for Brian Dutcher's new-look Aztecs, who lost plenty of firepower (including three double-digits scorers and a valuable 7-footer) from a year ago when San Diego State missed the Big Dance for just the second time in seven seasons. With the top four scorers gone and a new backcourt needing to reload, Dutcher, like many, is counting upon newcomers, and has high hopes for ex-San Jose State G Latrell Davis, who redshirted on Montezuma Mesa last season after scoring in double digits for the Spartans the previous campaign. Still, against a pesky foe like Fullerton, this might a be a price that the Aztecs can better handle later in the season when all of the new pieces have had some time to mesh.
Play Cal-State Fullerton

Josh Pastner's first UNLV side opened with a thud instead of a bang last November when unheralded UT-Martin pulled a shocker at the Thomas & Mack, though the Skyhawks turned out to be pretty good last term. Whether we can say the same about visiting Northern Arizona, up from Flagstaff for this opener, remains to be seen. Yet the dreaded "portal churn" makes the Runnin' Rebels perhaps more of a mystery at this stage than they were a year ago. Moreover, a spate of preseason injuries limited Pastner to eight available players for the preseason exhibitions, and that doesn't include well-traveled (we'll say...now fifth school in five seasons!) G AJ Storr, who scored 15.5 points per game at Ole Miss a year ago but as of yet hasn't had his eligibility cleared for 2026-27. While Pastner tries to juggle the many newcomers, including a handful from power conference like ex-Vandy F Tyler Harris and ex-Mizzou (and UCLA) G Sebastian Mack, he'll be leaning on returnees like wispy 6-9 F Tyrin Jones (11.9 ppg as a frosh last term) and sophomore guard Isaac WIlliamson, who impressed as last season went along. Still, this is a big price to lay vs. what could be a Big Sky sleeper, and the Lumberjacks sent out a warning shot in their preseason slate by downing Mountain West favorite Grand Canyon in an exhibition. Coach Shane Burcar has a bit more roster stability this season after dealing with massive turnover at this time a year ago, with three starters back in the fold including 6-4 G Ryan Abelman (10.5 ppg LY; hit 50 triples) and some intriguing adds like 7-0 Dylan Anderson, a onetime Arizona recruit who has started games at Boise State and Murray State the past two seasons.
Play Northern Arizona

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