Analysis

The Knicks won three of the four meetings last season, but Indiana went 3-1 against the spread including one outright upset as a double-digit ‘dog. Four of the last five meetings have gone over the total. Despite continuing to play without Haliburton, the Pacers have covered the spread in four of the last five games, including a 13-point home win over Washington on Wednesday. That was one of their best defensive efforts of the season and provides positive momentum heading into tonight’s game. Five of the Pacers’ last six games have stayed under the total. The Knicks’ four-game winning streak was snapped with a 115-107 loss to Cleveland on Wednesday. The champs are now 4-7 ATS on the season. They’ve split four road games this season, but one of the wins was by just six points at Chicago. (The Bulls are 1-9 overall and 0-4 at home.) Both teams dropped their first NBA Cup game. After finishing 24th in defensive rating last season, Indiana currently sits in the top half of the league through the first three weeks of this campaign. New York has played at the slowest pace in the league thus far. The line flip-flopped between -6.5 and -7.5 early this morning but has now climbed to -8.5. That provides additional line value with the home underdog. The Pacers were a thorn in the Knicks’ side last season, and we believe that can be the case in this one.
Play Indiana

Orlando has won-and-covered three of the last four meetings. Six of the last seven meetings between the Bucks and Magic have gone over the total. Milwaukee is 0-8 straight-up, 2-6 against the spread over the last eight games. The Bucks trailed by 24 on Wednesday before outscoring the Lakers 39-29 in the fourth quarter to sneak within the double-digit spread. That 123-112 broke a string of five-straight “under” results in Milwaukee’s games. Milwaukee’s defense has shown marked improvement after allowing 3 of their first 5 foes to top 52% shooting while allowing only 44.9% shooting in their last 6 games. Orlando returns home after splitting a four-game West Coast road trip. After dropping games to the Suns and Warriors, the Magic ended their trek with victories over Sacramento and Utah. This is Orlando’s first two game win streak this season, but it did come versus two teams which area combined 2-22 this season, but Milwaukee is in that same caliber The Magic are now 4-7 straight-up and 5-6 ATS on the season but at home they are 0-4 straight-up and ATS with 3 of those losses as a small favorite. Which is the worst of two evils, backing a 4 win Magic team laying 4 points more than their season high or backing a one-win Bucks team? We will side with Milwaukee which has covered 2 of their 4 games as an away underdog of +7 and higher.

Chicago is on the front leg of a back-to-back and will head to Minnesota on Saturday. The Bulls at 1-9 are on 4 NBA teams sitting with only one win. The Bulls have covered back-to-back games and they have cover 3 straight home games but last night’s 124-119 loss versus the Spurs was a tough one as they led 63-42. In their first 8 games of the season the Bulls averaged 42.4% shooting never reaching 49% but in their last 3 games they shot 52.3% versus Philadelphia and 57.9% versus San Antonio. The Bulls offensive uptick is a team effort as 9 players saw at least 15 minutes of action with no played topping 31 minutes versus the Spurs with 9 players scoring at least 7 points. Versus the 76ers 10 players saw at least 14 minutes of action with 34 minutes played the team high and 6 players reached double-digit scoring with 19 points for their top scored Chicago swept only two series last season in the Wizards and the Hawks in in those 3 games versus Atlanta they were an underdog is all three. The Hawks started the season 2-0 straight-up and ATS and have gone 5-5 straight up and 2-8 ATS. Atlanta is coming off a 3-game home stand in which they won the first games but went 0-3 ATS. The Hawks are 7-5 straight-up and 4-8 ATS this with a clear divide based on the line. Atlanta is 4-4 ATS as an underdog of small favorite but as a favorite of -2 and higher they are 3-3 straight up and 0-6 ATS since their season opener. The Hawks are shooting only 43.9% on the road while the defense has allowed 50.5% in their last 6 games. This is another spot we will back an ugly home dog but with better current form.

The Cavaliers won 115-107 against the Knicks on Wednesday. James Harden scored a season high 32 points. Prior to their victory over the defending champs, the Cavs had dropped back-to-back games and four of their previous five. The Heat are coming off consecutive wins. Though they’ve won three of five, all on the road, they are 0-5 against the spread in those games. This game marks the first of five straight at home. Giannis Antetokounmpo is leading Miami with 27.7 points and 12.6 rebounds per game. Both teams won big in their first NBA Cup game: the Heat beat Indiana 145-125 and the Cavs handled Philadelphia 119-95. Remember, scoring differential matters in these games. Cleveland has won eight of the past 10 meetings but the teams split last season’s four games. Three of those four games finished over the total, including both at Miami. The four games averaged a whopping 256 points. Both teams are on the front end of a back-to-back. Miami stays home to host the Pistons, while Cleveland heads home to host the Mavericks. Since the Heat are coming off four straight games which stayed below the total, we’re getting a reasonably low O/U line. Given last year’s high-scoring games and the fact that Miami’s previous NBA Cup game sailed over the total by more than 30 points, we feel that it’ll prove to be too low.
Play the Over

Coming off a 123-118 home loss to Denver on Wednesday, the Grizzlies will be happy to hit the road again. They’re 2-4 at Memphis but a perfect 5-0 in away games. The Pelicans are on a 4-game losing streak and the last two losses have been ugly. They got smashed 138-87 at Golden State on Monday and followed it up with a 145-111 home loss against Brooklyn on Wednesday. The Nets entered that game with a 2-8 record. New Orleans’ coach James Mosley commented: “The numbers speak for themselves. That’s three games in a row of 130-plus points allowed.” Both teams lost their first NBA Cup game so each needs a victory to stay in contention for the knockout stage. Both teams are on the front end of a back-to-back. The Grizzlies will head back to Memphis to host the Nets on Saturday, while the Pelicans stay home to host the Nuggets. Prior to their 4-game skid, the Pelicans had won four straight. One of those was a 135-134 OT win at Memphis. That result should provide the revenge-minded Grizzlies with some added motivation tonight. Given the Pelicans’ terrible current form, the Grizzlies’ excellence on the road and the fact that the pointspread has come down from its opening number, we’ll lay the short number with the visitors.
Play Memphis

Houston heads in as large favorites against another injury ridden Jazz team that will be without Lauri Markkanen and Jaren Jackson Jr. for extended time. Utah has lost ten straight and is an NBA worst 2-10 ATS on the season. They’re also 9-3 to the “under” which is mostly due to the fact they rank second to last in offensive efficiency on the season. With the injuries rookie guard Darryn Peterson has had a chance to shine, averaging 24.3 ppg over his last three while shooting 47% from the field during that time. Houston is off back-to-back straight up and ATS wins at home over Denver and Golden State which has brought their ATS record on the season to 9-3 which is second best in the NBA. The problem is this line has just ballooned up too big for our liking to take Houston as 16-17 point favorites with the average margin of loss for Utah during their ten-game losing streak is 11.9 points. It’s ugly but we’re going to lean with the Jazz plus the points in this one and more so look at the total going “under”. We already mentioned Utah’s “under” trend to start the season with Houston going 4-2 to the “under” over their last six games. Houston does rank third in offensive efficiency this season, but they also rank seventh in defensive efficiency and 19th in pace. Coming off big wins against the Warriors and Nuggets, this could be somewhat of a let-down spot for the Rockets who are averaging just 108 ppg across their last four. Lean Utah plus the points but more so “under” with the Jazz averaging just 104 ppg across their last four as well.

Yaxel Lendeborg has been the standout for the Warriors so far this season, but we’re about to see how great he really is as it was announced yesterday that Steph Curry will be out at least 2-3 weeks with an oblique abdominal tear. It won’t be easy in their first game without him as the Warriors head to San Antonio to take on the Spurs as double-digit underdogs. After starting the season 0-2 the Spurs have reeled off ten straight wins, but are just 5-5 ATS during that stretch including a 124-119 non-cover win at Chicago last time out. They’re just 2-3 ATS as a home favorite this season with Golden State going 3-2 ATS as a road underdog and made the shorter trip coming from Houston as opposed to San Antonio traveling from Chicago after their last game as this will be their first home game since Nov. 4. The Warriors should have a gameplan without Curry and Steve Kerr usually does a good job with making adjustments with the players he has with no other big name for them on the injury report. San Antonio lists De’Aaron Fox and Devin Vassell as questionable with San Antonio’s success mostly coming against bad teams with their winning streak consisting of wins against Sacramento and Utah twice as well as already mentioned Chicago. Take the points with Golden State as we’ll look to the “over” in this one as well with the number dropping too much since the opener. Sure, San Antonio is just 4-8 to the “over” this season but this will be the lowest total either team has seen all season with the Warriors 7-5 to the “over” so far. San Antonio still picks up a win in this one, but Golden State keeps it closer than the books anticipate and their offense does enough to get this into the 220s.

The Kings are itching to Light The Beam this season having yet to win a home game and sitting 1-10 straight up on the season. They’re currently on a four game losing streak with all of those coming at home but are 2-2 ATS during that stretch. They now welcome back a Portland team in which they lost to at home 128-120 back on Oct. 23 but did cover as a 10.5-point underdog. Coincidentally that’s where the line is at the time of this writing with the Trail Blazers coming off two huge wins at home against Oklahoma City on back-to-back nights. Portland is 2-1 ATS as an away favorite this season, but this is the definition of a sandwich spot for them coming off those two big home wins against OKC and after this game playing back-to-back nights in Minnesota against the Timberwolves on Monday and Tuesday. We’re not going to sugarcoat it, Sacramento has been awful this season, but we can’t imagine Domantas Sabonis going scoreless once again tonight like he did in their 107-100 loss at home to Orlando last time out in which Zach Lavine and Darius Acuff Jr. combined for 60 points on 20-37 shooting and 10-18 from three-point range. We’re leaning with the Kings plus the points in this one as well as the “over” with both teams playing at a top eight pace and Portland averaging 124 ppg in road games this season.

The last time the Thunder lost three straight games in the regular season was at the end of the 2023-24 season as they look to rebound after back-to-back losses playing at the Clippers tonight. Both those losses came at Portland on back-to-back nights and earlier this season when they lost back-to-back games they bounced back with a 117-112 road win at Cleveland when listed as 4-5 point underdogs. Even with their plethora of injuries they shouldn’t have a problem taking care of business against a Clippers team that’s just 2-8 straight up this season and 2-5 ATS across their last seven. The Clippers did cover as 16.5-point underdogs at OKC earlier this season in a 108-101 loss and although these teams look vastly different than last season, the Thunder did go 3-0 against LA winning by an average margin of 19 points. LA’s only two wins this season have come against the Kings and Pelicans as they desperately need Brandon Ingram to make his season debut soon to help keep them from falling lower in the standings. Don’t overthink this one and take the Thunder as road favorites with the Clippers starting lineup producing just 48 total points last time out at Phoenix. It won’t be any easier tonight going against a Thunder defense ranking fourth in defensive efficiency this season compared to Phoenix at 26th in that metric. We’ll also lean to the “over” in this one with OKC going “over” in three of their last five and LA going “over” in five of their last six and both teams playing at a pace in the top half of the league.