Analysis

Cleveland is 7-1 straight-up, but just 3-5 against the spread over the last eight meetings. Charlotte covered the spread as a 'dog in three of the four meetings last season, including an outright upset win as a double-digit 'dog in Cleveland last December. Those days feel like a decade ago in Charlotte, however, as the Hornets are 0-6 straight-up and against the spread over the last six games. The reintroduction of Coby White and Kon Knueppel into the lineup has not provided dividends. During this current six-game losing streak, Charlotte has scored an average of 91.2 points per game and the Hornets have lost those six contests by an average of 18.5 points per game. Knueppel, Dennis Schroder, Moussa Diabate and Grant Williams were all missing from Friday's 39-point home loss to the Celtics, and Brandon Miller suffered a groin injury during that contest. Knueppel suffered a hamstring strain and is now expected to miss the next four weeks. Schroder also suffered a hamstring strain and will miss the next two weeks. Miller has been ruled out for this contest. Cleveland earned a split during a tough back-to-back on Friday and Saturday, beating the Sixers at home before falling to the Knicks 24 hours later. One of the NBA's worst teams at the betting window last season, the Cavs are just 3-7 against the spread so far in 2026. The Hornets' team total has opened at 102.5, which feels ambitious considering Charlotte has scored an average of 91.2 points over its last six games. The Hornets enter this contest last in the NBA in offensive rating, last in assist-to-turnover ratio, last in turnover rate, last in effective field goal shooting and last in true shooting percentage. Play Hornets Team Total Under 102.5 Points

Washington has been a thorn in Detroit's side in recent years. The Wizards have covered the spread in four of the last five meetings (all as a double-digit 'dog), including two outright upsets. Washington is also 5-1 against the spread in its last six trips to Detroit with four outright upset wins. The Wizards are looking to snap a three-game losing skid, which includes a 39-point loss at Oklahoma City on Saturday. Detroit is on the second leg of a back-to-back after falling at home to the Lakers on Sunday. After losing to the Sixers earlier in the week, this is the first time the Pistons have lost consecutive games this season. Los Angeles jumped out to a whopping 24-point lead in the first quarter and put things on cruise control after that. Given the circumstances, we're a little surprised that Detroit didn't rotate its lineup a little bit more as Cade Cunningham still played 38 minutes last night. Detroit made a strong run to cut the gap in the second half but the Pistons were never able to get over the hump. Six of Washington's last seven games have stayed under the total, and that is the direction we'll look in this one. Both teams sit in the bottom-third of the league in pace. Detroit has posted the second-best defensive rating thus far, just decimal points behind Minnesota for the top spot. And given Washington's recent success in this matchup, we wouldn't be shocked if the Wizards pulled off another outright upset in a low-scoring affair.
Play the Under

The home team has won each of the last seven meetings in this cross-conference matchup, and very few of those contests were competitive. Six of those seven meetings were decided by double digits with an average margin of victory at 18.1 points per game. Atlanta earned a 20-point home win last November and the Lakers followed that up with a 25-point home win two months later. So needless to say, the road team hasn't put a ton of emphasis on this matchup in the past. Atlanta has won four-straight games, but this contest against the Lakers represents a jump in class compared to games against the Hornets, Pacers, Wizards and Nets. Los Angeles is on the second leg of a back-to-back after beating the Pistons in Detroit on Sunday. The Lakers built a 26-point lead in the first half and nearly gave all of it back before eventually holding on in the fourth quarter. Los Angeles has won-and-covered each of its last five games. Luka Doncic did not play in last night's contest, leaving Austin Reaves to score 43 points to lead the Lakers' attack. We have some interest in the over in this contest. The Hawks have played at the second-fastest pace in the league this season, and with the Lakers on the second leg of a back-to-back, Atlanta should be looking to push the pace. Los Angeles enters this contest with the league's best (by far) offensive rating, while leading the NBA in both effective field goal shooting and true shooting percentage.
Play the Over

Toronto swept last year's meetings with a pair of double-digit wins. Both games stayed under their respective totals. Both teams are on equal rest after playing on Friday. Memphis hits the road after a disappointing home stand where the Grizzlies dropped their last three games. After a 6-0 start (both straight-up and against the spread), water has found its level in Memphis. The Grizzlies shot 10-of-45 (22.2-percent) from three-point range against the Thunder on Friday. Over half of Memphis' field goal attempts came from beyond the arc as the interior duo of Zach Edey and Cameron Boozers combined to shoot 5-of-21 from the field. Toronto returns home after splitting a four-game road trip with wins over the Clippers and Bucks wrapped around losses to the Lakers and Nuggets. Friday's 121-107 win over Milwaukee stayed under the closing total by a half-point, breaking a streak of five-straight "over" results in Toronto's games. Raptors' guard Scottie Barnes is questionable as he deals with a groin injury, but we have some interest in Toronto regardless of Barnes' status. we tip our cap to the Grizzlies for the hot start, but you simply can't ask for an easier schedule than what Memphis has seen thus far: Two games against Utah, two games against Sacramento, one game against Indiana (without Tyrese Haliburton) and one game against the Pelicans. There's still room to "sell high" on the Grizzlies, in our opinion.
Play Toronto Raptors

Dallas has won each of the last three meetings, including a 121-105 road win at Indiana on October 23. The Mavericks held a 77-43 lead at halftime in that contest before taking their foot off the gas in the second half. Perhaps the most concerning aspect of that result is that Indiana has a healthy Tyrese Haliburton available in that contest, but he has since been sidelined with a hamstring injury. Dallas shot 50.0-percent from the field in that first meeting, while Indiana turned the ball over 19 times. Indiana returns to the US after falling in Mexico City against the Nuggets on Saturday. A slow start in the first half became the problem once again as Indiana trailed 64-41 at halftime. Six of the Pacers' last seven games have stayed under the total. Dallas is on the second leg of a back-to-back after crushing Brooklyn on Sunday. Dallas is now 6-1 against the spread over its last seven games following last night's 37-point home win over the Nets. The Mavs built a 20-point lead at halftime and took their foot off the gas in the second half. No one played more than 29 minutes as Dallas was able to empty its entire bench with all 15 players seeing the court. Keep an eye on the Mavs' availability report through out the day, but if it looks like Dallas is going to be at full-strength, we can only look in the Mavs' direction. Indiana has played a light schedule this far with two games against the Nets, plus some comfortable games against the Bucks, Grizzlies and Pelicans. Against some upper-tier teams like the Sixers, Hawks, Nuggets and Heat, Indiana has gone 0-4 straight-up with an average margin of defeat at 10.3 points per game.
Play Dallas Mavericks

Denver is 5-1 straight-up and against the spread over the last six meetings in this Western Conference matchup. The Nuggets have won each of their last three trips to Houston. Three of last year's four meetings stayed under the total, and the lone game that went over needed overtime to get there (would have stayed under in regulation). Houston is looking to snap a mini two-game losing skid after the Rockets lost against Minnesota and Phoenix as a 6+ point favorite in both. Add those to a loss against the Mavericks and the Rockets now have three losses as a 6+ point favorite over the last ten days. That was an issue last season as well. Denver makes what should have been a relatively short trek from Mexico City to Houston after beating the Pacers on Saturday. Unfortunately for the Nuggets, that trip turned out to be a lot longer than it should have been. Denver arrived at the airport at 9pm local time on Saturday night after the game, but spent the next eight hours sitting on the plane unable to take off as the crew worked to fix a mechanical issue. The Nuggets arrived in Houston 18 hours after the originally scheduled arrival time, and as a result, Denver placed its top six players on the “injury” report as questionable. On the court, everything has been going relatively well as of late. The Nuggets built a 27-point lead against the Pacers and were able to empty the bench after that. After a shaky start to the season, Denver has gone 4-1 straight-up and against the spread over the last five games. But as we go to print on Monday morning, we have no clue how the Nuggets are going to approach this game from a personnel standpoint, making it very difficult to offer an informed recommendation.

The home team has gone 8-0 straight-up, 7-1 against the spread over the last eight meetings in this Western Conference matchup. Both teams are on equal rest after playing on Saturday. The Suns have SLOWLY begun to turn their season around after a pair of wins over Orlando and Houston. After five-straight "over" results, Phoenix finally found its defense with a pair of strong performances against the Magic and Rockets. That defense will be necessary on Monday against a Spurs team that has won eight-straight games. This is the third game of a West Coast road trip for San Antonio, who earned a 15-point win at Sacramento followed by a 22-point win at Portland. Seven of the Spurs' first ten games have stayed under the total. Phoenix is on the front leg of a back-to-back and will stay home to host the Clippers on Tuesday. Oddsmakers have opened this spread in line with our power ratings, so we're not showing much value on either side. We will offer a look toward the under, however. Seven of the last eight games between the Spurs and Suns have stayed under the total. Last year's four meetings saw an average of 219.3 points per game, which is a far cry from the 227.5 total that we're seeing on Monday morning. Phoenix sits in the bottom-third of the league in pace, and although San Antonio has been ruthless on offense, the Spurs haven't played very fast either.
Play the Under

Golden State was on a six-game winning streak in this Western Conference series before the Pelicans won the last contest in February. Five of the last six meetings have stayed under the total as the Pelicans have scored an average of 101.2 points per game in those contests. Most of the country changed its clocks last week, but Golden State seemingly changed the whole calendar. The Warriors have won seven-straight games, reminding the Bay Area of what Steve Kerr's teams looked like a decade ago. Steph Curry finished with 41 points on just 19 field goal attempts in Saturday's win over the Magic. New Orleans is on the second leg of a back-to-back after falling to the Clippers in Los Angeles on Sunday. New Orleans has now dropped its last two games after a four-game winning streak. That 139-123 final score was probably a little flattering for LA considering New Orleans was leading that game with under three minutes remaining in the third quarter. The Pelicans made a concentrated effort to rotate its lineup on Sunday as no one played more than 31 minutes and 13 players saw the court. We're inclined to take the points with the Pelicans. We tip our cap to Golden State for what the Warriors have accomplished thus far, but we're really struggling to justify a point spread that is now flirting with double digits on Monday morning. Just eight days ago, Golden State was only a 1.5-point home favorite against the Clippers and now they're laying -9.5 to New Orleans?! Golden State only laid -4.5 at home to Memphis and now the Warriors are laying twice as many points to the Pelicans?! We can't get on board with that.
Play New Orleans Pelicans