Analysis

Atlanta is 5-1 straight-up and against the spread over the last six meetings. All five of those Hawks wins have come by double digits. Washington brings a two-game winning streak into this contest after a pair of Southeast Division wins over the Hornets and Magic. The Wizards' last four games have all stayed under the total. Atlanta is just 1-5 against the spread over the last six games, and the lone point spread cover came by a bucket (beat Cleveland by three as a 1.5-point favorite). Hawks' forward Jalen Johnson is listed as questionable as he recovers from an ankle injury. Johnson did not play in Monday's win over Indiana. We're still working with a small sample size of data this year, but Atlanta and Washington have actually played many of the same opponents thus far (Charlotte, Orlando, Cleveland). With that in mind, Washington has posted the better net rating and defensive rating. Washington has posted a higher effective field goal shooting percentage and true shooting percentage, and they are essentially dead-even in rebounding rate.
Play Washington Wizards

The Pistons took care of business against the 76ers back on Oct. 25 in a 106-93 win in Philadelphia. That’s been the 76ers’ only loss this season as Philadelphia and Detroit enter Wednesday as the top two teams in the East. Detroit will still be without Jalen Duren, but they played without him in that head-to-head win over Philadelphia. It’s worth noting that both Joel Embiid and VJ Edgecombe missed that game as well but both are expected to be active and in the starting lineup for the 76ers. Edgecombe scored 21 points on 9-of-12 shooting in the team’s 126-107 win against Chicago on Monday. Detroit also took care of business, winning 124-91 at Charlotte with Cade Cunningham scoring 33 points in just 27 minutes of action due to the blowout. Detroit is now 6-1 ATS on the season. Philadelphia is 5-3 against the number, but the Sixers have covered the spread in three-straight and covered in their only game as an away underdog, which was an opening night 106-100 win at New York. Both teams have relied heavily on their defense so far this season with Detroit and Philadelphia ranking No. 1 and 2 respectively in defensive efficiency so far this season. With the 76ers at full strength and the Pistons still missing Duren, we’re going to lean with Philadelphia plus the points but are more comfortable looking at the “under” for this matchup. These teams have combined to go 10-5 to the under so far this season. The Pistons rank 26th in pace on the season and should dictate the tempo tonight with this game being in Detroit.
Play the Under

Since the start of the 2024-25 season, Boston has gone 6-1 straight-up, 5-2 against the spread in this Eastern Conference matchup. Things have not gone well for the new-look Bucks thus far as Milwaukee is 1-6 straight-up, 2-5 against the spread. The Bucks have lost their last three games by an average margin of 23.0 points per game. Celtics' forward Jason Tatum is listed as questionable for load management. Tatum played 32 minutes in Monday's loss to the Rockets. Boston has a four-game road trip on the horizon starting on Friday, so perhaps Tatum could take the night off with the Celtics as a double-digit favorite in this contest. Boston's last three games have each stayed under the total, but we're going to view this as a buy-low spot. The Bucks have allowed 125+ points in five of their seven games. Milwaukee's undisciplined defense is likely going to be shredded by Boston's efficient offense. The Bucks are playing at the second-fastest pace in the league this season, but all that is doing is giving the opponent more possessions to run up the score.
Play the Over

These teams met on opening night with Charlotte earning a 110-103 road win in Brooklyn. With that victory, the Hornets have now won-and-covered four of the last five meetings in this Eastern Conference matchup. Unfortunately for Charlotte, that 110-point performance two weeks ago now looks like the high watermark for the Hornets' offense. Over the last four games, Charlotte has scored an average of 90.8 points per game. The Hornets have failed to hit the 100-point mark in four of their eight games. Starting point guard Coby White made his season debut on Monday against the Pistons, but he was held to seven points with no rebounds and three turnovers in 16 minutes. Things haven't gone much better in Brooklyn where the Nets have also failed to hit the 100-point mark in each of their last three games. Both teams are bottom-3 in the NBA in offensive rating. Charlotte is playing at the second-slowest pace in the league.
Play the Under

These teams met in Chicago last Wednesday with the Knicks earning a 133-127 road win, but the Bulls did stay within the number as a home 'dog. We're going to head toward the prop market in this contest, looking for Knicks forward Mikal Bridges to go over 15.5 points + rebounds + assists (-110). The Bulls have given up the most points + rebounds to opposing small forwards this season, plus the fourth-most assists. Fellow forward Josh Hart is questionable on the Knicks' early injury report, which could potentially put more emphasis on Bridges if Hart is limited. After a slow start to the season, this is the perfect "get-right game" for Bridges considering the Bulls are 27th in defensive efficiency thus far. In four head-to-head meetings against Chicago last season, Bridges averaged 22.3 points + rebounds + assists. Although New York prefers to play at a slow pace, Chicago runs at the fastest pace in the league which creates more opportunities to fill the stat sheet.
Play Bridges Over 15.5 PRA

Cleveland and Oklahoma City play the second of a home-and-home with the Thunder knocking off the Cavaliers 117-112 in Cleveland on Monday. OKC closed as a 4.5-point road underdog in that contest, but the Thunder will now be favorites at home - even with their laundry list of injuries including Chet Homgren, Jalen Williams and Cason Wallace out. Jaylin Williams is listed as questionable. Peyton Watson and Jaylon Tyson will also miss this game for Cleveland as it was Meleek Thomas who got the start on Monday for Cleveland, tying for the team high in scoring with 17 points on 7-of-16 shooting. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander poured in 43 points on 14-of-35 shooting. The difference in that game came at the free throw line where the Thunder went 21-of-23 and Cleveland went 14-of-24, which is on par for the season with OKC shooting 88-percent from the line as a team this season and Cleveland sitting at 75-percent as a team. With Watson still out for Cleveland it’s tough to say how the Cavaliers plan on defending Gilgeous-Alexander tonight with the Thunder going 2-1 ATS as a home favorite on the season. Cleveland is 0-2 ATS as a road underdog and we’ll take OKC as 2-3 point favorites to take care of business at home tonight. We’ll also lean to the “under” with the Thunder and Cavaliers combining to go 10-4 to the “under” on the season and both teams ranking top-seven in fewest free throws allowed per game. Despite the injuries OKC has done a solid job adjusting thus far.
Play Oklahoma City

We've got another early-season rematch on Wednesday's slate. New Orleans was riding an eight-game winning streak in this Western Conference matchup before Utah earned a 120-119 home win on October 23. Seven of the last eight meetings between the Pelicans and Jazz have gone over the total. Unfortunately for Utah, that one-point win over New Orleans was their only win of the season. The Jazz have lost five-straight and they failed to hit the 100-point mark in losses to Portland and San Antonio. New Orleans has won-and-covered each of its last three games, including a pair of outright upset wins over Atlanta and Memphis. In that first meeting in Salt Lake City, Utah made 13 three-pointers compared to only eight by the Pelicans. Also, Utah still had Jaren Jackson Jr. in the lineup at that time, but he's now out with a torn MCL. The fact that New Orleans only lost that contest by one point with such a disparity from beyond the arc is actually a nice testament for the Pelicans. New Orleans should be able to keep its win streak intact.
Play New Orleans

Memphis won-and-covered both meetings with a pair of blow-out wins. Surprisingly, for two of the fastest-paced teams in the NBA over the last few years, six of the last seven meetings have stayed under the total. Indiana's high hopes for the 2026-27 season have been dashed over the last few weeks and the Pacers have lost five-straight games without Tyrese Haliburton. Four of Indiana's last five games have stayed under the total. Memphis has been one of the league's best stories thus far, opening the year 6-0 straight-up and against the spread before falling by one point against New Orleans on Monday. The Grizzlies have played a VERY easy schedule thus far and regression is likely on the horizon, but the current state of the Pacers lines up pretty closely to what Memphis has faced over the first two weeks.
Play the Under

Very little separated these Western Conference foes last year as the last four meetings between the Rockets and Timberwolves have been decided by 6, 5, 2 (in OT) and 4 points. Minnesota has largely stayed afloat and played .500 ball thus far without Anthony Edwards. LaMelo Ball scored 34 points with six made three-pointers in Monday's win over Milwaukee. Houston is 7-1 straight-up and against the spread this season, with the lone loss coming at Dallas. The Rockets do not play until Saturday, so we presume they will be at full-strength in this one. With that said, we have no interest in stepping in front of Houston at the moment. The Rockets' last four wins have all come by double digits, including a 32-point road win at Milwaukee, a 21-point home win over the Thunder and a 16-point home win over the Celtics. Houston has played a tough schedule thus far with games against top competition, and we didn't even mention the win over San Antonio during opening week.
Play Houston Rockets

Portland kicked off the 2026-27 season with a dominant 124-83 home win over the Suns. The Blazers have won-and-covered each of the last three meetings in this series, including a 114-110 road win in Phoenix in last season's Play-In Round. Portland is 5-1 straight-up, 4-2 against the spread this season and one of the betting losses came by a bucket (beat Sacramento by eight as a 9.5-point favorite). The Blazers' last three games have all stayed under the total. Phoenix is just 1-4 straight-up, 0-5 against the spread this season. The Suns were involved in a skirmish with Golden State on Monday (who was a part of the Play-In Round with these two teams last season), but even a hockey-style fight couldn't spark a light under the Suns' defense. Phoenix is on the front leg of a back-to-back and will host Orlando on Thursday. For all intents and purposes, the Suns' offense has largely been fine since laying the egg against Portland in the opener. The other side is the concern, where Phoenix is sitting last in defensive rating thus far. If the Suns are going to make a move this season, it needs to come on that end. With only two games played in the last eight days, the Suns have had plenty of time to work on it.
Play the Under

Denver has won each of the last six meetings, but Toronto is 7-2 against the spread over the last nine. The last five meetings between the Nuggets and Raptors have been decided by 6, 3, 2, 2 (in OT) and 6 points. Both of last year's contests stayed under their respective totals. Toronto has split its first two games on this West Coast road trip with a loss to the Lakers followed by a win over the Clippers. The Raptors' last four games have all gone over the total, and that is the only direction we can look in this one. Denver is notorious for having some gaudy home vs road splits, often scoring several points more at Ball Arena compared to similar road contests.
Play the Over

San Antonio has won-and-covered each of the last six meetings, including a 122-106 road win in Dallas on October 24. That was a three-point game entering the fourth quarter before the Spurs out-scored the Mavericks 30-17 in the final frame. Dallas struggled to get to the free throw line, only generating five made free throws in front of a home crowd. Mavs' guard Kyrie Irving is expected to play tonight as he recovers from a knee injury. Irving missed Monday's 15-point home loss to the Kings. Neither Irving nor Cooper Flagg played in that Week 1 contest against the Spurs. After dropping back-to-back games against Oklahoma City and Houston to open the season, the Spurs have won each of their last five against inferior competition. Five of the Mavericks' last six games have stayed under the total. Given that Irving and Flagg will give the Mavericks a different look, we're inclined to take a shot with Dallas plus the points.
Play Dallas Mavericks

Luka Doncic sure looks like he’s trying to become the new face of Lakers basketball this season, averaging 38.3 points per game and 8.1 assists per game as LA and Sacramento meet for the first time this season. The Kings have also found themselves a scorer in Darius Acuff Jr. averaging 26.1 points per game this season although it’s been on just 40-percent shooting. This has come at somewhat of a cost as Domantas Sabonis has made his thoughts clear, stating the team does need to move the ball more so instead of settling for early on-pass shots or isolated pick-and-rolls. He may have a point with the team ranking 25th in offensive efficiency with the Lakers ranking second. The Kings are coming off a 115-110 win at Dallas on Monday, but that was the end of a four-game road trip whereas the Lakers are coming off back-to-back home wins against the Raptors and Heat. Their 131 points scored against Toronto was impressive considering the Raptors rank fifth in defensive efficiency this season. We’re going to side with the Lakers as large road favorites in this one with the team scoring the ninth-most points in the paint per game this season and the Kings ranking dead last in points in the paint given up. It’s also worth noting the Kings give up the fifth-most free throw attempts per game and the Lakers attempt the fifth-most free throws per game on offense, including Doncic specifically attempting ten per game. The Kings are 2-5 ATS this season and LA is 5-3 ATS and as far as totals go these two are a combined 10-5 to the “over” as both teams rank top-ten in pace.
Play LA Lakers

Miami won-and-covered each of the two meetings last season. The Heat have been stationed in Los Angeles for a few days after falling to the Lakers on Monday. The purple-and-gold made 19 three-pointers and shot 57.3-percent from the field. Giannis Antetokounmpo led the Heat in scoring once again, but he was assigned to seven of Miami's 19 turnovers. Since beating the Kings on opening night, the Clippers have gone 0-6 straight-up, 2-4 against the spread. To be fair, LA has faced a tough schedule thus far with two games against the Lakers, one game against the then-healthy Thunder and other difficult contests against the Timberwolves, Warriors and Raptors. Miami's last three games have gone over the total. Los Angeles' last three games have gone over the total. Miami is on the front leg of a back-to-back and will travel to Golden State on Friday. We would love to find a reason to back the Clippers in this matchup, but they haven't given us many. All six of LA's losses have come by 7+ points, so they haven't stayed within a point spread like this for two weeks. Assuming the Heat field a complete lineup, we can only look in Miami's direction.
Play Miami Heat