Analysis

Atlanta won-and-covered all four meetings last season. The Hawks won those four contests against their Southeast Division rivals by an average of 15.0 points per game. Orlando's Franz Wagner is expected to play in this contest after battling a shoulder injury that has kept him limited in preseason workouts. Wagner only played 34 games for the Magic last season after playing 60+ games in each of his first four years with the club. Some money has shown on Orlando after the news of Wagner's clearance, but we still can't lay a full three points with the Magic in this matchup. Orlando turned up the heat late in the season and the Magic gave Detroit a strong seven-game series in the playoffs, but this is a team that was 33-42 against the spread at the beginning of April last season. As we mentioned, three of Atlanta’s four wins over Orlando last season came by double digits. It’s' not like the Hawks were stealing nail-biters in the fourth quarter. Atlanta dominated this series last year, and we need to see signs of change from the Magic before we're willing to lay this many points against an opponent that had their number last season.
Play Atlanta Hawks

Washington earned three outright upset wins over the Bucks last season, including two wins last December as a double-digit 'dog. Washington scored an average of 118.0 points per game against Milwaukee last season. Wizards' rookie AJ Dybansta is questionable to make his NBA debut as he deals with an ankle injury that he suffered over the weekend. The No. 1 overall pick in the 2026 draft scored in double figures in all four of his preseason games, giving Wizards fans plenty to get excited about for this new-look squad. On paper, the Wizards should be fielding a much better roster than years past. When Dybansta is fully healthy, Washington projects to have Trae Young at point guard, Kyshawn George at shooting guard, AJ Dybantsa at small forward, Anthony Davis at power forward and fellow former No. 2 pick Alex Sarr at center. Milwaukee is in the midst of a regime change as the Bucks welcome Tyler Herro, Jaime Jaquez Jr. and Kyle Kuzma, to the lineup with new head coach Taylor Jenkins. Jenkins spent the last six years in Memphis where he led the Grizzlies' fast-paced attack. He will likely bring a similar approach to this one, and he's got a handful of former Heat players that gained experience in track meets last season. Still, 239 points on opening night is a BIG total. When Young is on the floor for Washington, defense will likely be optional. But we're talking about two rosters that have plenty of players coming off injuries and rust. Minutes are likely going to be limited across the board. Neither roster has played together in a meaningful capacity in the past. This total would probably be justified a month from now, but on opening night, we're expecting a few more turnovers and sloppiness between both offenses.
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Charlotte went 2-1 straight-up and against the spread in this Eastern Conference matchup last season. Dating back to the previous season, five of the last six meetings between the Hornets and Nets have stayed under the total. Brooklyn has scored an average of 103.7 points per game in those contests. These teams met in Charlotte to open last season (Hornets won 136-117), so this will be back-to-back years that Charlotte and Brooklyn play on opening night. A strong wave of Brooklyn money has pushed the Nets from a two-point 'dog to a 2.5-point favorite on Wednesday morning and we agree with the move. Charlotte's Coby White and Kon Knueppel are both listed as questionable. Over the weekend, head coach Charles Lee said, "There's still no timeline on those guys. They're making really good progress. Day by day, they've stepped up what they've been able to do on the court, adding some level of contact to their workouts as well." Don't forget, Brooklyn made NBA history last season with five first round draft selections then they added three more rookies to the roster through out the season. So the Nets played with eight rookies over the course of last season. Brooklyn opened with one win in their first 11 games, yet the Nets were still .500 against the spread through the first two months of the season as they continually played hard-fought, low-scoring games. Head coach Jordi Fernández made it clear that he's moving this franchise beyond the tanking phase this year. Those rookies all got valuable experience last season, and there's reason to believe Brooklyn can take another nice step forward in 2026.
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Over the last three seasons, Minnesota has gone 5-1 straight-up, 4-2 against the spread in this cross-conference matchup. The Timberwolves won-and-covered both meetings by double digits. We're inclined to believe that Minnesota can maintain its success in this matchup. All eyes will be on newly-acquired Giannis Antetokounmpo and Bam Adebayo to see how their styles mesh for Miami, but few teams in the NBA are better-equipped to deal with that kind of size and athleticism than the Timberwolves. Jonathan Kuminga, Ayo Dosunmu and Terrence Shannon Jr. are all strong perimeter defenders, while Rudy Gobert and Jaden McDaniels patrol the paint. You're probably going to pull your hair out once or twice during this game when either LaMelo Ball or Anthony Edwards attempts an ill-advised fade-away three-pointer, but other than that, Minnesota has the athletes to thwart what Miami wants to do on the other end.
Play Minnesota Timberwolves

Toronto won-and-covered all three meetings last season. Interestingly, Chicago swept the 2024-25 series so this has been a matchup full of one-sided affairs over the last two years. Kawhi Leonard makes his return to Toronto at 35-years-old. Who knows how many games the Raptors are going to have him for during the regular season, but he should be fired up on Opening Night to re-join the team that he led to a championship in 2019. Josh Giddey gives Chicago a solid playmaker that can run the offense, but outside of him, we're not seeing much on this Bulls roster. Giddey missed 28 games for Chicago last season, and any injury to him will likely sink the Bulls' season because they do not have much around him. Detroit, Boston, New York and Philadelphia grabbed the Tuesday Opening Night headlines, but Toronto is quietly hiding as an under-the-radar threat in the East. The Raptors open the year with a comfortable stretch of opponents before things get tougher in mid-November. Look for Toronto to get out to a fast start with a convincing win over an inferior opponent.
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The Grizzlies and Jazz split their four meetings last year at two wins apiece. Four of the last five meetings have gone over the total, and the lone game that stayed under only did so by a half-point. Is this (finally) the year that Utah ends its perpetual tank? Jaren Jackson Jr. played three games for Utah last season before getting shut down at the All-Star break. Lauri Markkanen has missed an average of 34 games per season over the last three yards. Keyonte George went from playing 75 games in 2023 to 67 games in 2024 to 54 games last season. Utah's top-8 on the depth chart is arguably good enough to compete for a playoff spot, but the Jazz haven't been able to keep these guys on the court. Memphis will be missing newly-acquired forward Isaiah Stewart as he recovers from an ankle injury. At full-strength, we're inclined to back Utah on opening night. What happens after this is anyone's guess, but we trust the Jazz when they actually want to win basketball games.
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The home team has won each of the last ten meetings in this cross-conference matchup. New Orleans earned a 19-point home win last December and the Pacers returned the favor in Indianapolis less than a month later. Both of last year's contests went over the total. Much like Toronto, Indiana is going to be perfectly happy with staying under the radar in the East. While New York, Boston and Philadelphia draw the headlines, Indiana looks poised for another quiet run. The Pacers essentially performed a one-year tank in 2025-26 when they knew Tyrese Haliburton was not going to be available. Rick Carlisle used the year to give his younger players as much playing time and experience as possible. Haliburton is now back, and he's bringing former-Clipper Ivica Zubac with him. Zubac only played five games for Indiana last season (played 80 with LA the prior year), so he should be fresh and ready to kick off this campaign. Pascal Saikam scored 24.0 points per game for the Pacers last year, showing that he can shoulder the scoring load when Haliburton or Andrew Nembhard need a night off. Preseason results should be taken with a grain of salt, but both the Pacers and Bucks played their full starting lineups in Friday's finale. Indiana led 71-56 at halftime in that game. Nembhard produced a +21 plus/miinus rating in 20 minutes. Siakam was +23 in 21 minutes. Indiana's starters crushed Milwaukee in that contest, and that's a good sign that Carlisle has this team clicking at the start of the season.
Play Indiana Pacers

The home team won all four meetings in this Lone Star State clash last season. Dallas covered the spread as a 'dog in all four contests. Over the last two seasons, six of the last eight meetings have stayed under the total. This has been an interesting matchup, because the low-scoring games tend to favor Houston's style of play, but Dallas keeps finding success. The Rockets played at the second-slowest pace in the league last season with only Boston playing at a slower tempo. Houston led the NBA in rebounding rate, and the Rockets have led the NBA in offensive rebounding rate in three of the last four seasons. With all due respect to Houston, the Rockets don't have any hardware to justify that success on the glass. Dallas played at a top-5 pace last season, and when Houston sends players to the glass like they do, the Mavericks have been able to generate easy points off transition opportunities. Make no mistake about it, Houston is clearly in a different tier than Dallas entering the season. But on opening night with minimal travel and a team that covered the spread in all four meetings last year, we can only look in Dallas' direction.
Play Dallas Mavericks

Crisis averted! (We hope/think). Steph Curry put a scare into the Bay Area faithful on Sunday night after leaving the Warriors' open practice/fan fest with an apparent ankle injury. After the event, head coach Steve Kerr said he believed the incident was minor and Golden State's early injury report confirms that with Curry expected to play in this contest. The Warriors are patiently awaiting the return of Jimmy Butler, Kristaps Porzingis and Moses Moody, so they need Curry healthy at the beginning of the year. Brandin Podziemski is also dealing with a back issue and his status is questionable for this one. These teams met on opening night last year with Golden State earning a 119-109 road win in Los Angeles, but the Lakers would go on to win-and-cover the final three meetings last season. Nine of the last ten meetings between the Lakers and Warriors have gone over the total. Even though Curry is expected to play, it's still tough to envision Golden State clicking on all cylinders at the start of the year. Former Michigan center Yaxel Lendeborg is projected to be the Warriors' starting center, and he drew quite the assignment in his debut game with Luka Dončić on the other end. We see this game playing out similar to the final three meetings of last season when the Lakers earned a trio of wins by an average of 16.7 points per game.
Play LA Lakers

The Suns and Blazers split their four meetings at two wins apiece last year with the road team winning-and-covering all four games. Portland beat Phoenix in the play-in round of the playoffs, earning a 114-110 road win to clinch the 7-seed. Some early money has shown on the Suns in this game, and we agree with it. Those that followed The Basketball GoldSheet newsletter last year know that we were probably a little bit higher on Phoenix than the rest of the betting market. Take a look at this stretch that the Suns played from Thanksgiving to Christmas last year: Three games against the Lakers, two games against the Thunder, two games against the Warriors, one game against Denver, one game against Houston and one game against Minnesota. You're not going to find a harder 10-game stretch than that. Once the Suns were able to navigate that stretch, they played quality basketball. Dillon Brooks missed 26 games. Devin Booker missed 18 games. Jalen Green missed 50 games. At full-strength, we believe Phoenix is a small notch above the Blazers.
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Los Angeles is 7-1 straight-up, 4-4 against the spread in this Pacific Division matchup over the last two seasons. Not exactly known as an offensive force last season, Los Angeles scored an average of 123.0 points per game against the Kings last year. Neither team is entering the 2026-27 season with good vibes and high confidence. Los Angeles is trying to pick up the pieces from the Kawhi Leonard/Aspiration salary cap scandal. Leonard is now a member of the Raptors while Los Angeles is stuck with an invoice that includes a $30 million fine, a suspension to owner Steve Ballmer and the loss of five first-round draft picks. Max Strus, Brandon Ingram and Bradley Beal will all be missing at the start of the season as all three look to return from injuries in the coming weeks. Sacramento, on the other hand, had its hopes dashed at the last possible moment before the season kicked off as newly-acquired point guard Ben Simmons tore his Achilles over the weekend and will miss the entire year. This total has dropped about two points from its opening number, but we're not sure it's dropped far enough. Both teams are desperately lacking playmakers. The Clippers played at the third-slowest pace in the league last season, while Sacramento also sat in the bottom-half of the league in tempo.
Play the Under