Analysis

Cleveland is 3-1 straight-up and against the spread over the last four meetings in this cross-conference matchup. All four of those contests went over the total. Cleveland is 1-1 straight-up, 0-2 against the spread to kick off the year. The Cavs nearly blew a 22-point lead at home against the Nets on Saturday, eventually winning by four. James Harden finished with 12 points on 1-for-8 shooting from the field in that contest. Minnesota is on the second leg of a back-to-back after beating the Raptors at home on Sunday. The Timberwolves are 3-0 straight-up and against the spread to open the campaign, holding their first three opponents to an average of 97.7 points per game. Minnesota held a 32-point lead against the Raptors last night, allowing the T-Wolves to empty their bench in the fourth quarter. No one played more than 31 minutes. We still have our doubts surrounding a backcourt of Anthony Edwards and LaMelo Ball when the postseason rolls around, but we are very high on Minnesota's defense compared to the betting market at the moment. The T-Wolves should have something left in the tank for this one after playing limited minutes last night. With Rudy Gobert patrolling the paint on the other side, Cleveland probably can't bank on 21 points on 7-of-8 shooting from Jarrett Allen like they received against the Nets. It's obviously still very early, but Minnesota leads the NBA in defensive rating through the first three games and the T-Wolves have the highest defensive rebounding rate, taking away any second-chance opportunities.
Play the Under

Charlotte went 4-0 straight-up, 3-1 against the spread in last year's contests. The Hornets' average margin of victory in those contests was 16.0 points per game. Both teams are on equal rest after playing on Saturday. This will be the Hornets' third-straight home game after falling to Atlanta and beating Miami. Charlotte's first three games have all stayed under the total. The Hornets are trying to stay afloat until Coby White and Kon Knueppel return to the lineup after both missed the first week of the season with injuries. Both are expected to remain out again in this contest. Washington is off to a 2-1 start both straight-up and against the spread. Prior to Saturday's win over the Bulls, we offered praise toward Washington's second unit. Guys like Justin Champagnie, Tre Johnson and Bub Carrington were thrown into the fire over the past couple of seasons, but now with a veteran core leading the starting lineup, that trio can cause some havoc as a second unit. They combined for 33 points on 50.0-percent shooting from the floor off the bench in Saturday's win over Chicago. Most importantly, Washington's bench produced a total of one turnover against the Bulls. If that unit can continually play clean basketball, the Wizards will likely climb the Eastern Conference pecking order. We're inclined to back Washington as a short road 'dog. Charlotte's Brandon Miller took 29 attempts from the field in Saturday's win over Miami, while two starters - Moussa Diabate and Sion James - combined to score four points on 2-of-6 shooting from the field. One team is getting balanced scoring from several different players, while the other is trying to piece an offense together until reinforcements arrive.
Play Washington Wizards

The home team has won each of the last four meetings in this cross-conference matchup. Dallas has covered the spread as a 'dog in each of the last three meetings, including two outright upsets. Both of last year's meetings stayed comfortably under their respective totals. Both teams are on equal rest after losing on Saturday. The Mavericks suffered a 16-point home loss to San Antonio in their first game without last year's No. 1 overall pick, Cooper Flagg. Flagg suffered a shoulder injury in Friday's win over Indiana and he is expected to miss the next three games before being re-evaluated. Kyrie Irving also missed Saturday's loss to the Spurs. Back-up point guard Sergio De Larrea led Dallas with 21 points on 9-of-15 shooting from the field. The 20-year-old from the Spanish national team showed that the NBA stage is not too big for him, confidently leading the Mavericks' offense against the defending Western Conference champs. After fellow guards Max Christie and Naji Marshall struggled against the Spurs, expect De Larrea to climb the Mavs' depth chart over the next few weeks. Raise your hand if you expected a team with Giannis Antetokounmpo, Bam Adebayo and Klay Thompson to be 0-3 after the first week of the season. Things have not gone well for the new-look Heat, particularly on the offensive end where Miami's high-powered offense is only scoring an average of 109.0 points per game thus far. Some early money has shown on the over in this contest, and this does appear to be a nice buy-low spot for the Heat. Miami is top-10 in assist-to-turnover ratio through three games, so the Heat are sharing the ball and they aren't giving it away. The issue has been putting the ball in the hoop. That can be corrected fairly easily, and Dallas is an ideal opponent to work through some of your issues against. When these teams met last November in Miami, the closing total was north of 240. We're getting a discount on Monday with two offenses that haven't quite fired during the first week of the season.
Play the Over

Boston is 8-2 straight-up, 7-3 against the spread over the last ten meetings in this Eastern Conference matchup. Five of the last six meetings have stayed under the total, and the lone game that went over only did so by two points. The Celtics had an extra day to prep for this one after beating the Knicks at home on Friday. Perhaps reacting to some of the criticism faced after the opening night loss to Detroit, Boston turned down the volume just a bit on the three-point attempts in Friday's win over New York. After blowing a 22-point lead against the Pistons (mostly because of missed three-pointers), Boston took a measured approach against the defending champs. Jayson Tatum led the way with 36 points, nine rebounds, seven assists and three steals. Boston is on the front leg of a back-to-back and will host the Nets on Tuesday. On the other side, No. 4 overall draft pick Caleb Wilson has gotten the rookie jitters out of his system in a hurry. In the opener against Toronto, Wilson's -45 plus/minus rating was the worst mark of any player in league history making his NBA debut. In the two games since then, Wilson has looked like a can't-miss prospect. He scored 30 points with 14 rebounds and two steals in Saturday's four-point home loss to Washington. Boston went 14-7 against the spread as a double-digit favorite last season, so the Celtics enjoyed the role as a bully when given the opportunity. Chicago was 24th in defending the three-point line last season, allowing opponents to hit 36.8-percent of their shots from beyond the arc. Boston has owned this matchup in the past, and even though Bulls fans should start to get excited about Wilson, the Celtics should take care of business on Monday.
Play Boston Celtics

Milwaukee went 4-0 straight-up, 3-1 against the spread in this Central Division matchup last season. Three of those four games stayed under the total. The Bucks are still searching for their first win of the season after dropping games against the Wizards, Bulls and Sixers. All three of those games went over their respective totals as Milwaukee has allowed an average of 129.0 points per game thus far. Indiana is on the second leg of a back-to-back after crushing the Nets in Brooklyn on Sunday. Tyrese Haliburton finished with 24 points as the Pacers shot 21-of-43 (48.8-percent) from three-point range. Unfortunately, starting center Ivica Zubac suffered an apparent ankle injury and was only able to play seven minutes last night. With Zubac likely out, we can only look toward the over in this contest. We already mentioned that Milwaukee hasn't played a lick of defense thus far. With Zubac likely out, Indiana will probably be looking to pick up the pace since they don't have to wait for their 7-foot center to travel the length of the court. Milwaukee has played at the third-fastest pace in the league thus far.
Play the Over

The Suns were competitive with Oklahoma City in the regular season (two outright upset wins), but the Thunder swept their four-game series in the opening round of last year's playoffs. OKC out-scored Phoenix by an average of 17.3 points per game during that playoff series. The Suns split their first two games of the season, losing at Portland before beating Golden State at home on Saturday. Devin Booker put Phoenix on his back, scoring 43 points with seven rebounds and seven assists on 17-of-25 (68.0-percent) shooting from the floor. Oklahoma City is on the second leg of a back-to-back after beating the Clippers at home on Sunday, but they may have suffered a significant loss in the process. Jalen Williams suffered a significant leg injury and was taken off the court in a stretcher. Williams, the jack-of-all-trades in Oklahoma City's system, scored 21 points with five rebounds in the win over Denver last Thursday. He missed 50 games last season, so the Thunder have plenty of experience playing without him, but obviously things look a little better in OKC when he is in the lineup. We wish Williams a speedy recovery, but we can only look in the Suns' direction in this one. We've got a rested team from Phoenix that had a moderate level of success in this matchup last year. We would imagine that most of the Thunder players got a rough night's sleep on Sunday after watching their teammate get taken away from the arena in an ambulance. Don't forget, a trio of players that kept Oklahoma City afloat without Williams last year - Lu Dort, Aaron Wiggins and Isaiah Joe - are no longer in the picture. Second round draft pick Otega Oweh also suffered an Achilles injury during the preseason, so Oklahoma City is already missing an athletic wing that could have helped fill Williams' role.
Play Phoenix Suns

This is the second leg of a home-and-home series after Houston won in Atlanta on Saturday. Five Rockets finished with 17+ points in a very balanced scoring effort. We backed Atlanta in that contest, expecting the Hawks to neutralize Houston's advantage on the glass. That did hold true as the Rockets only finished +1 in rebounding margin and the Hawks were +4 on the offensive glass. That game got a little chippy with four players earning technical fouls. Following that win on Saturday, Houston is now 5-0 straight-up, 3-2 against the spread over the last five meetings in this cross-conference matchup. Houston has won-and-covered all three of its games, while Atlanta's lone loss came against the Rockets. Our power ratings are directly in line with where this game has opened, but we are inclined to lay the points with Houston. As we mentioned, the Hawks did about as well as they could reasonably expect on the glass against the Rockets on Saturday, but it wasn't enough. Houston is top-5 in effective field goal shooting and true shooting percentage through its first three games. With Oklahoma City now dealing with another major injury, the door is cracked for Houston to join the Spurs and Thunder at the top of the Western Conference pecking order.
Play Houston Rockets

The NBA season is less than a week old, but this will be the second meeting between these teams after Memphis earned a 123-103 home win on opening night. The Grizzlies took a 14-point lead into halftime and were able to put things on cruise control in the second half. Ty Jerome finished with 45 points, seven rebounds and six assists in just 32 minutes. Both teams are on the second leg of a back-to-back. Memphis is 3-0 straight-up and against the spread after starting its West Coast road trip with wins over Golden State and Sacramento. Jerome stole the show once again with 31 points, including a perfect 14-of-14 from the free throw line, in last night's win over the Kings. Cameron Boozer's young career has gotten off to a nice start, scoring 25 points against the Warriors followed by a 16-point effort against the Kings. Utah fell 132-123 at home against the Lakers on Sunday. In a year when the Jazz should have a competitive roster with no desire to tank, Utah is 0-3 against the spread. The Jazz blew an 18-point lead last night to Los Angeles as Luka Doncic scored 52 points on just 30 field goal attempts. Lauri Markkanen, Keyonte George and Jaren Jackson Jr. each cleared the 20-point mark, but the Jazz didn't offer much resistance on the defensive end. That trio also played more than 33 minutes apiece last night, which is more than any Memphis player saw against the Kings. The Grizzlies showed that they were the deeper team when they met in Memphis last week, and we haven't seen much to suggest that Monday's result will play out differently.
Play Memphis Grizzlies

The home team has won-and-covered each of the last five meetings in this Western Conference matchup. The Nuggets beat the Warriors by 25 and 23 points in Denver last season. Both teams are on equal rest after playing on Saturday. The Nuggets picked up their first win of the season with an overtime victory over New Orleans. After being held to six points in the opener against Oklahoma City, Jamal Murray finished with 42 points against the Pelicans over the weekend. Golden State is still searching for its first victory after dropping games to the Lakers, Grizzlies and Suns. Steph Curry, Draymond Green, Brandin Podziemski, Moses Moody and Kristaps Porzingis all missed Saturday's loss to Phoenix. Moody and Porzingis remain out, but Curry, Green and Podziemski have all been cleared to return for this one. On the Nuggets' side, Spencer Jones and Cameron Johnson are both questionable. We are comfortable laying this number with the Nuggets at home. With all due respect to Phoenix, the Suns' offense likely isn't going to finish in the top-10 in many categories this season. Golden State allowed the Suns to shoot 36-of-49 (73.5-percent) from inside the arc on Saturday. Phoenix out-scored Golden State 27-10 in fast-break opportunities and 60-48 in the paint. If the Suns' offense can do that against you, then Denver's offense should find a similar level of success.
Play Denver Nuggets