Eight quick facts you need to know about UFC prediction markets
So, what exactly are UFC prediction markets and how do you use them? Here are some quick facts to put you in the picture:
- UFC prediction markets ask questions about the outcome of upcoming Ultimate Fighting Championship bouts, as well as long term events in the sport.
- These questions can be either binary (simple yes or no questions), scalar (range based outcomes), or multiple choice.
- Your task is to buy contracts on the outcome you believe will happen. For example, if the question is ‘Who will win the upcoming contest between Gable Steveson and Elisha Ellison?’ and if you think Ellison will get the W, you would buy contracts on that outcome.
- Each contract is given a price of between $0.01 and $0.99. This price reflects the perceived likelihood of the outcome occurring. For instance, a price of $0.80 indicates that the outcome has an 80% likelihood of happening.
- Prices never sit still. Every buy and sell nudges the market, so they move as traders react to breaking news, weigh-ins, and fight week buzz.
- When the fight is over, winning contracts settle at $1 each, while losing contracts settle at $0.
- If you make a successful prediction, you receive a payout which is calculated at $1 multiplied by the number of contracts you purchase. This means that if you purchase 50 contracts on Conor McGregor winning his next fight at $0.60 each, a victory for The Notorious will see you receive a payout of $50 ($1 x 50).
- If your pick doesn't come through, the most you can lose is what you paid for your contracts (plus any applicable fees).
What are the different types of UFC prediction markets?
Now for the fun bit. UFC might not have as many markets as NFL prediction markets, but there's still more than enough to keep fight fans busy. Whether you're backing a winner on this weekend's card or taking a long-term view on the next champion, you've got plenty of angles to play. Broadly speaking, the markets fall into two categories: individual fights and futures.
UFC bout prediction markets
Fight night is where most of the action happens. The majority of UFC prediction markets are built around a single bout, and the questions are usually nice and simple. If you've got a strong read on a matchup, these are the markets you'll be firing at:
- Who will win the fight?
- Will the fight go the distance?
- Will the fight be won by submission?
- Will a specified fighter win by TKO?
UFC futures prediction markets
If you're thinking a few steps ahead, futures are where things get interesting. These markets let you back longer-term outcomes, whether that's the next champion, a fighter's next opponent, or another big storyline bubbling away behind the scenes. Here's the kind of stuff you'll come across:
| Prediction type | Example question | Example contract prices |
| Binary | Will Tom Aspinall win the UFC Heavyweight Title before the end of 2026? | Yes: $0.68 No: $0.32 |
| Multiple choice | Who will be the next UFC Featherweight Champion? | Alexander Volkanovski: $0.46 Movsar Evloev: $0.27 Jean Silva: $0.06 Aljamain Sterling: $0.02 |
| Binary | Will Conor McGregor fight before the end of July 2026? | Yes: $0.81 No: $0.19 |
| Multiple choice | Who will Charles Oliveira fight next? | Arman Tsarukyan: $0.68 Ilia Topuria: $0.08 Justin Gaethje: $0.02 Benoît Saint Denis: $0.02 |
Top three sites for UFC prediction markets
Given the rapid surge in the growth of prediction markets, it is no surprise that there are several fantastic sites out there waiting for you to sign up. I’ve tried out a wide range of these sites, and when it comes to making UFC predictions, these are the three brands that stand out from the crowd:
Kalshi - The leading name in prediction markets
Kalshi In A Nutshell
Ask somebody to name a prediction market brand, and there is a solid chance that Kalshi will be the first answer you get. Simply put, Kalshi is THE number one name in the prediction market world, and having spent some extensive time on the site, I can see exactly why that is.
Not only does Kalshi offer an unrivaled selection of prediction markets, but thanks to their world class, user-friendly website (as well as a super mobile app), assessing the markets and making your picks is an incredibly easy and enjoyable task. You can even view the latest market trends thanks to some nifty graphics, plus get details on the potential returns for your selections.
When it comes to making picks on UFC bouts, Kalshi offer an outstanding array of futures markets covering events such as title changes, potential opponents for major stars and even the dates of anticipated bouts. Their markets for specific fights aren’t quite as impressive or extensive, but there’s still more than enough to satisfy the vast majority of MMA fans. When you also factor in Kalshi’s top tier support channels and easy-to-use payment platform, it is clear to see why prediction market fans (including me!) make Kalshi their number one choice.
Polymarket - Incredible choice for UFC fans
Polymarket In A Nutshell
If you want a vast number of options at your disposal when predicting UFC events, then Polymarket is a brand you need to check out. You can buy Polymarket sports contracts based on upcoming bouts, as well as various other potential future outcomes in the sport. When I last checked the Polymarket UFC page, there were over 40 markets on offer, far more than what you find at Kalshi and other leading sites. Better yet, those markets cover upcoming major bouts, the next champions in every weight category and the next opponents for top stars, such as Manel Kape and Carlos Ulberg.
This sensational market depth is evident across the board at Polymarket. So, regardless of whether you want to check out the latest soccer prediction markets, predict political events, or select your winners for upcoming entertainment awards, Polymarket will have you covered. I’m also a massive fan of Polymarket’s mobile app, which runs seamlessly and allows you to easily access a wealth of statistical information to help you identify your ideal selections.
Crypto.com - A new name in town
Crypto.com In A Nutshell
Crypto.com is primarily known as a financial trading platform, but sports fans can now use the site to make predictions on upcoming sporting events, including UFC bouts. Since Crypto.com have such a wealth of experience in online trading, it is no surprise to learn that their sports prediction markets are extremely user-friendly to use, and feature high level graphics, plus several features to help you find your ideal predictions.
Whilst it’s fair to say that the range of markets at Crypto.com is not quite at the level of Kalshi and Polymarket, it is worth bearing in mind that it’s still early days in Crypto.com’s sports prediction market journey. Given their incredible success in the financial trading world, I am extremely confident that they will soon be known as one of the leading names in the sports prediction market. In other words, now is the ideal time to open your Crypto.com account.
Sponsored by Crypto.com – Not investment advice. Trading prediction markets and crypto involves risk, including potential loss of your stake. Consider your risk tolerance before participating. Crypto.com connects U.S. users to CDNA (regulated by CFTC) for derivatives trading. CDNA membership required. Trading may not be suitable for all—you could lose your entire investment plus fees. Past performance doesn't guarantee future results. This is not a solicitation or recommendation to trade.
UFC prediction markets: How to get started
Whichever UFC prediction market site (or sites) you decide to join, the process for opening your account and making your first prediction will look something like this:
-
Go to the prediction market site: Access the prediction market you wish to join by using the banners on this page. Using our banners will ensure you go to the correct website.
-
Register your new account: Most prediction market sites keep their sign up process simple, so opening your new account shouldn’t take you more than a couple of minutes. In most cases, you will be able to save a bit of time by linking a social media account or crypto wallet to the prediction market site. Even if you are unable to do that, you will just need to provide a few personal details and verify your account.
-
Add funds to your account: Before you can start marketing predictions, you need to fund your account. Regardless of which site you are using, you should be able to choose from a wide array of payment methods, and once you’ve made your request, your funds will be processed instantly.
-
Head to the UFC prediction markets: You may be able to locate UFC markets via a direct link in the main website menu, but if not, you can use a free text box to search for the markets.
-
Make your selections: After doing your research (more on that in a bit) and finding the prediction you wish to make, it’s simply a case of selecting the number of contracts you wish to buy and completing your purchase.
Expert tips for UFC prediction markets
The action inside The Octagon is usually anything but predictable, so I’m not going to pretend that making successful UFC predictions is a cinch. However, during my extensive time playing at the sites, I have picked up a few extremely useful tips and tricks that will really enhance your chances of finding winning UFC predictions on a regular basis:
📊 Study the stats
Whilst UFC isn’t quite as ‘stats heavy’ as some other major sports, there are a lot of useful metrics you can assess before making your predictions. Pay close attention to areas such as ‘strikes per minute’, ‘takedowns per round’ and ‘submission attempts’ when comparing fighters. This information can go a long way towards shaping your view of who is likely to win a fight.
🤼 Compare the styles
Okay, it’s a cliché, but it’s a cliché that rings true when it comes to the UFC. For instance, an elite level striker may find their approach nullified when facing a fighter who possesses a world class defensive game. Similarly, submission specialists often find it tough going against fast-moving fighters with backgrounds in martial arts such as jiu-jitsu. In short, don’t just base your fight predictions on who is perceived to be the better combatant; take a holistic look at the matchup and try to work out how the bout may play out.
📈 Records can be misleading
On paper, a fighter with a 10-0 record should easily beat somebody with a 5-8 record. However, it may be that the unbeaten fighter has faced a string of relatively easy bouts, whilst the fighter with the losing record has been in the cage with top tier opponents. The bottom line is that assessing the quality of each fighter’s previous opponents is just as important as looking at their overall record.
💰 Look for value
One of the biggest differences between prediction markets and traditional sportsbooks is who sets the price. Instead of a bookmaker creating the odds, prices are shaped by traders buying and selling contracts. Because many UFC traders follow the sport closely, markets can become pretty efficient and adjust quickly to new information like injuries, weigh-ins, and fight news. That doesn't mean the market gets everything right, though. Every now and then, you might spot a little value when emotions come into play. Big-name fighters with massive fan bases can attract extra attention and trading activity, which may push prices away from what the underlying matchup suggests. If you know the fighters, the styles, and the situation, those moments can be worth keeping an eye on.
💵 Set your budget and stick to it
Whether you're making UFC predictions, checking out the NBA prediction markets, or buying contracts on any other upcoming sporting event, you need to carefully manage your budget. That means setting a budget before you begin to make predictions, then sticking to that budget and not buying contracts that could result in uncomfortable losses. Not only will this approach help you avoid any uncomfortable losses, but by successfully managing your budget, you will give yourself the best possible chance of making a steady profit from your predictions.
Pros and cons of UFC prediction markets
Before I offer my final thoughts on UFC prediction markets, I want to first sum up the main pros and cons attached to making UFC predictions at sites such as Kalshi, Polymarkets and Crypto.com.
- Use your UFC knowledge to predict upcoming events
- Prediction markets are easy to use
- Market prices are dictated by your fellow traders
- UFC hours can be extremely unpredictable
Verdict: Get involved in UFC prediction markets today!
I cannot recommend UFC prediction markets highly enough. They are easy to use, a huge amount of fun and, if you follow my expert tips, they give you an excellent chance to make some tidy returns.
Finding the right prediction market platform comes down to what works best for you, but the three options covered in this guide are all worth checking out. Each one brings something different to the table, whether that's market variety, ease of use, or the overall trading experience.
If you’re ready to get started, click the on-page banners to visit the platforms featured here. From there, you can compare your options, find the market that suits your style, and start putting your UFC knowledge to work.
UFC prediction markets: FAQs
What is the best UFC prediction market site?
There are several fantastic prediction market sites out there, including the likes of Kalshi and Polymarket. To identify the very best prediction market sites for you, make sure you read all of the expert guides here at WagerTalk.
Are UFC prediction markets legit?
Yes. UFC prediction markets are legal and fully regulated. This means you can make your contracts will be honoured and your winning predictions will be paid out in full.
Can I get a welcome bonus at UFC prediction market sites?
Yes. Many leading prediction market sites (including Polymarket and Kalshi) give new players a welcome bonus when they open an account and make a deposit. To ensure you don’t miss out on these welcome offers, make sure you use our exclusive banners when accessing the sites.
