12 quick facts about prediction markets
If you have never previously encountered prediction markets, it is essential that you have a crystal clear understanding of exactly how they work before you join any new sites and start trying to pick the winners of next year’s Oscars. So, I want to kick off this guide by arming you with some quick facts you need to know about prediction markets:
- A prediction market asks a question about an upcoming sporting, cultural, political or financial event.
- These questions can be either binary, scalar or multiple choice.
- A binary question asks a simple Yes/No question.
- A scalar question has a number of range-based outcomes.
- Multiple choice questions have several potential answers.
- The idea is simple. You pick the outcome you believe in, buy contracts on it, and your position pays off if you get it right.
- Each contract has a price of between $0.01 and $0.99. This price reflects the likelihood of the outcome taking place. So, a price of $0.90 suggests that there is approximately a 90% chance of the outcome occurring, but a price of $0.10 means that there is just a 10% chance of that answer being correct.
- This price changes depending on how traders are buying contracts on the market. If the majority of contracts are bought on a certain outcome, the price for that outcome will go up.
- After an event has finished, all contracts on correct outcomes payout at $1.
- All contacts on losing outcomes settle at $0.
- Winning contracts pay out at $1 each. So, if you buy 50 contracts at $0.40 and your prediction is correct, your total payout will be $50 (50 × $1). Since you paid $20 upfront, your profit would be $30 before fees.
- Last but not least, prediction markets are regulated by the CFTC at federal level and they are currently legal in all 50 US states.
Introducing Oscars prediction markets: A unique way to enjoy the Academy Awards
Whilst a lot of the focus at prediction market sites is on sporting events, movie prediction markets are also rapidly growing in popularity. A lot of these markets focus on questions relating to the release dates of anticipated movies, the identity of the next actor to play a specified character, such as James Bond, or even which film will be the US box office number one at the end of that week.
As is the case in the actual movie world, the annual Oscar ceremony attracts a huge amount of attention in the movie prediction market world. This year’s event saw leading prediction market sites Kalshi and Polymarket (more on them later!) take over $120 million in contracts for the event, and that amount is widely expected to be even higher when the 99th Academy Awards take place next March.
What are the different Oscar prediction markets?
Although we are still over six months away from the big event, the Oscar prediction markets are already seeing plenty of activity as traders attempt to predict who will scoop the biggest awards of the night. Here’s a look at some of the most popular Oscar prediction markets, along with some of the potential outcomes in those markets:
| Market | Contract prices |
| Which film will get the most Oscar nominations at the 99th Academy Awards? | The Odyssey: $0.41 Dune Messiah: $0.29 Wild Horse Nine: $0.21 Project Hail Mary: $0.14 Disclosure Day: $0.05 |
| Will this actor receive a 2027 Best Actor Nomination? | John Malkovich: Yes - $0.89 Tom Cruise: Yes - $0.81 Ryan Gosling: Yes - $0.86 Jeremy Strong: Yes - $0.66 |
| Which film will win Best Animated Feature at the 2027 Oscars? | Tangles: $0.56 Shaun the Sheep: The Beast of Mossy Bottom: $0.51 Forgotten Island: $0.56 |
Quick heads-up: The prices above are just a guide to show you how these markets work. They move all the time, so if you’re looking to make a move, check the live Oscar prediction markets on the platform you’re using for the latest contract prices.
Pros and cons of Oscars prediction markets
As is the case with all prediction markets, there are various pros and cons associated with making predictions on the Oscars:
- Prediction markets are available for all award categories
- Enhance your enjoyment of the Academy Awards
- Use your movie knowledge to make correct predictions
- Unexpected award winners are commonplace
My nominations for the best Oscar prediction market sites
If you search online for ‘prediction market sites’, you will see a star studded lineup of names. However, during my time exploring these sites, I have found three A-list brands that stand out from the crowd and offer you a truly world class experience when making predictions on the Oscars and other major events:
Polymarket: Prediction markets for everyone
Polymarket In A Nutshell
The variety of prediction markets on offer at Polymarket is truly breathtaking. Whether you want to try Polymarket 5-minute Bitcoin markets, predict sporting events, put your knowledge of current affairs to the test or even predict the weather (yes, really), Polymarket will have you covered. As you would expect, this means that Polymarket provides a comprehensive range of markets for the Academy Awards, including a very active ‘Which film will receive the most 2027 Oscar nominations?’ market.
Away from the markets themselves, Polymarket is a pretty straightforward platform to get started with. If you’re still learning how polymarket work, the process is simple: browse the available markets, find the outcomes you have a strong opinion on, and buy contracts based on where you think things are heading.
The platform’s clean interface makes it easy to follow price movements, manage your positions, and keep track of your predictions as markets develop. With a user-friendly setup, simple account management tools, and a range of markets to explore, Polymarket gives both new and experienced traders plenty of ways to get involved.
Kalshi: Awesome choice for movie fans
Kalshi In A Nutshell
The Academy Awards may be over six months away, but Kalshi already have a huge selection of Oscars prediction markets for you to trade on. Better yet, these markets are already seeing plenty of activity, and there has already been tens of thousands of dollars traded on markets such as ‘Best Picture winner’ and ‘Best Director nominees’. As is the case at Polymarket, Kalshi provides in-depth statistics, so you can view recent trader activity and market trends, whilst their extremely active user forums (located at the bottom of each market page) give you a great opportunity to interact with other traders and share insights into the markets.
I am also a massive fan of Kalshi’s extensive Help Center. Kalshi are clearly aware that many users will be completely new to the world of prediction markets, so they have made their Help articles incredibly user friendly and full of great insights. When you add in Kalshi’s rewards features and the benefits available to regular traders, it’s easy to see why the platform has built a loyal following. With a smooth user experience, a strong market selection, and features designed to keep traders engaged, Kalshi continues to stand out in the prediction market space.
Crypto.com: A name to watch
Crypto.com In A Nutshell
If you’ve heard of Crypto.com, it is probably because of their famous financial trading platform. However, in recent times, the brand have also started offering sports and cultural prediction markets, all of which are available on Crypto.com’s industry leading mobile app. Because Crypto.com are so proficient when it comes to financial markets, their new prediction markets are also delivered to an extremely high standard, complete with a clear user interface and a host of useful statistics.
All of Crypto.com’s background areas are also on point, although if I’m being ultra picky, I would like to see a bit more information for prediction market newcomers in the apps FAQ section. Of course, it’s important to remember that it’s still relatively early days for Crypto.com prediction markets, but given the outstanding quality of their financial trading platform, I fully expect the brand to go from strength to strength and swiftly become the number one choice for prediction market fans across the US.
Sponsored by Crypto.com – Not investment advice. Trading prediction markets and crypto involves risk, including potential loss of your stake. Consider your risk tolerance before participating. Crypto.com connects U.S. users to CDNA (regulated by CFTC) for derivatives trading. CDNA membership required. Trading may not be suitable for all—you could lose your entire investment plus fees. Past performance doesn't guarantee future results. This is not a solicitation or recommendation to trade.
The best strategies for making predictions on the Oscars
Having a sound strategy is essential if you want to enjoy regular success when making Oscar predictions. Here are some of the strategies I always deploy when making my predictions for the Academy Awards:
🎬 Watch the films
Although you can’t directly vote for the Oscars, you can use your movie knowledge to form educated verdicts on which films and performances have been the best in 2026. And the only way to do that is by watching the films! So, whether it’s at the local multiplex or on a streaming service at home, make sure you watch the films in contention for next year’s Oscars so that you can form your own opinions on the potential winners.
📰 Stay on top of the latest movie news
Remember when Timothée Chalamet made some somewhat disparaging comments about ballet and opera? Well, those slightly unwise remarks saw his previously high Oscars chances plummet, and the Marty Supreme star eventually missed out on the Best Actor award he was heavily favored to win. In short, the awards can be influenced by factors that are not purely related to the movies themselves. As such, it is essential to stay on top of the latest industry news, as that may help you predict the winners of the awards.
🏆 Understand the different Academy Award categories
Although it’s pretty obvious what the ‘Best Actor’ and ‘Best Actress’ awards are for, some of the other Oscars categories are slightly trickier to understand. For example, do you know how the ‘Best Visual Effects’ category differs from the ‘Best Production Design’ category? Or do you know the exact qualifying criteria for the ‘Best Supporting Actress’ or Best Animated Short’ awards? Before you begin trading on the Oscars, research how each category works and establish which films, performers and crew members are eligible to win.
⏳ Wait until Oscars season is in full swing
Although sites such as Polymarket and Kalshi already have 2027 Oscars prediction markets, it is almost impossible to form an educated view on which films are likely to scoop the big awards. For a start, a lot of the expected contenders will not be released until early next year, so there is no definite way of knowing exactly how well received those movies will be by reviewers or how well they will do at the box office. It is also impossible to know if sleeper films (for example, Obsession) or surprise hits such as The Sheep Detectives will force their way into Awards contention. As such, the best time to make your prediction is during the Oscars season (January to March), as that will allow you to have as much information as possible at your disposal before you buy any contracts.
💰 Be sensible with your predictions
This is a standard, but vital, piece of advice that I insert into all of my prediction market guides. Before you begin to buy contracts on the Oscars, set your budget and don’t make any trades that exceed it. In addition, if your 2027 Oscars predictions turn out to be unsuccessful, don’t chase your losses by immediately buying contracts on other markets in a bid to recoup your losses. Stick to your budgets and only trade on markets where you have a firm understanding of the topic and what is required.
Final thoughts on Oscars prediction markets
Before the credits roll on my guide to Oscars prediction markets, I want to bring together everything I’ve covered and give you my final verdict. In short, Oscars prediction markets offer a fantastic way of enhancing your enjoyment of the world’s most famous awards ceremony. Thanks to sites such as Kalshi and Polymarket, you can now make predictions on virtually every awards category, plus place trades for other niche categories, such as whether a certain actor or actress will receive a nomination.
I am a huge fan of all three prediction market sites featured in this guide, so rather than focusing your attention on just one brand, I can thoroughly recommend opening accounts at all three sites. Not only will that allow you to compare three different platforms side by side, but it will also help you explore a wider range of markets and spot the trades that offer the best value for your strategy. Click the links on this page to check out the featured sites and see what each one brings to the table.
Oscars prediction markets: FAQs
What are Oscars prediction markets?
Oscars prediction markets allow you to buy contracts based on the outcomes of the 2027 Academy Awards. To find out more about these markets, make sure you read the expert prediction market guides at WagerTalk.
Which prediction market site should I use for Oscars predictions?
Kalshi, Crypto.com and Polymarket are three of the leading names in the prediction market world. All three brands offer extensive markets for the Academy Awards. Check out the expert prediction market guides at WagerTalk for details of the specific Oscars markets available at each site.
What prediction markets are available for the Oscars?
Many top prediction market sites now offer over 20 markets for the Academy Awards, with the most popular prediction markets including ‘Which film will win the Best Picture award?‘ and ‘Which film will receive the most nominations?’
⚖️ Are Oscars prediction markets legit?
Yes. Prediction markets are federally regulated and currently legal in all 50 US states. This means that if you are 18+ years old, you can currently sign up and trade legally at leading prediction market sites such as Crypto.com and Kalshi.
Can I get a welcome bonus at prediction market sites?
Yes. Most leading prediction market sites offer a welcome package to new players. To ensure you qualify for these bonuses, always use our exclusive banners when accessing sites to open your account.
