Ronald Cabang

THE PLAY: Indianapolis Colts -1.5 (-110)

This is a classic buy-low on an elite offense and sell-high on a defense running hot against bad teams. Season-long, Indianapolis sits near the top of the league in basically every meaningful offensive metric: just under 30 points per game, up there in yards per play, top-tier points per drive, and a red-zone TD rate in the mid-60s. Jacksonville’s defense has looked dominant the last three weeks, but those performances came against struggling attacks and pushed their recent numbers above their true baseline. Meanwhile, the Colts are coming off a 20–16 loss where they moved the ball but failed to finish drives against a top defense, a profile that usually bounces back rather than signals collapse.

On the situational side, Jacksonville is fresh off a 25–3 road blowout of a 1–11 Titans team, now coming back home with everyone suddenly high on their defense. Add in the possibility of rain and wind, which should favor the team with the better run game and more efficient offense, and this sets up as a strong bounce-back spot for the Colts against a Jaguars team that’s a bit overvalued off its recent surge. I like Colts -1.5, and I’m fine with it up to -3 in a game where sustained offensive efficiency and drive finishing should be the difference.