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(153) Cincinnati at (154) Texas Tech   (Game Analysis Below)

Play Rating: 5% 

Play Type: Full Game Total

Play: Total Over 58.5 (-110)

Date/Time: Sept 28, 2024 8:00 PM EDT  / Line Provider: Consensus

5% Cincinnati @ Texas Tech OVER 58.5

Cincinnati defensive numbers skewed enough last week by Houston ineptitude to feel a reversal is coming here. UH visited Cincinnati territory 4 times last week enroute to 0 points. Spot on the Cincy 14 turned into a 31 yard missed FG / Cougars got to the 11 and fumbled / to the 45 and turned it over on downs and then fumbled again at the Bearcats 32. There’s potential ranging from solid to pretty god chance of 4 scoring drives right there but UH in a new system with a journeyman QB (used to play here in Lubbock) not savvy enough to make the scoreboard operator have to work. Even with that nice looking statistical win Cincinnati ranks #104 in FBS Total Defense. Three games prior the Bearcats allowed 1,316 total yards and 6.5 per play. The opposition was FCS Towson State (438 ty) / Pittsburgh (498 ty) & Miami (Ohio) (380 ty). The preferred method of travel of those teams eas through the air racking up 902 passing yards. That’s problematic here since Texas Tech throws for 319 per game led by QB Behren Morton. TTU balances it off with stud RB Taj Brooks (126.3 rypg / 5.3 ypc) whose dynamic ability keeps defenses honest. Second year OC Zach Kittley (Western Kentucky & Incarnate Word-FCS) now has his extreme tempo system installed and understood by the offense helping it to run at a high level. HC Joey McGuire’s philosophy right now is to push pace and constantly add points in any way. Cincinnati has weaponry of their own in the form of a veteran OL, QB Brendan Sorsby and a host of rushing & receiving talent. Nice matchup for them here vs. youthful and inexperienced Texas Tech defense which has seen 60% of their snaps taken by underclassmen. Pittsburgh is the only up tempo offense Cincinnati has played thus far and in only their second game of the new scheme they allowed 498 ty & 7.3 per play. That was on the road as well and this one lines up as a more difficult venue & matchup. Shapes up as a scorefest and oddsmaker sill allowing us to cash on the key number of 59. View final score in the 64+ range making it strong enough to step in and label as the first 5% Bluechip of the CFB season.

Play: Cincinnati-Texas Tech OVER 58.5