4:25 PM ET -- NFL

469 Detroit Lions 
470 Arizona Cardinals

Play 469 DETROIT -3 even money

Bet Size: 5%

Line Parameters:
5% play at -3 or better 
4% play at -3.5
3% play at -4
2% play at -4.5

I love looking for teams coming off games that they dominated in the stats but lost on the scoreboard.  Detroit fits the bill here.  The Lions are coming off a 20-16 upset home loss as 7.5-point favorites to Tampa Bay last Sunday.  Looking at the stats from that game, Detroit out-gained the Bucs by a whopping 247 total yards, but were -1 in turnover margin, had twice the penalty yardage, and were 1-for-7 in the red zone.  That makes it bounce-back time for a Lions bunch that is a perfect 8-0 SU and ATS when coming off a loss since November 2022.  The Lions are also 5-1 SU and ATS as road favorites going back to last season.

Arizona is coming off a satisfying 41-10 blowout home win over their division rivals from LA in a series that the Rams had dominated in recent years.  That makes this a bit of a letdown spot for the Cards.  The Rams are a beat-up team and the Cardinals took full advantage.  No such luck this week.  

As stated above, this is a spot in which Detroit has thrived and they catch Arizona in a bit of a letdown spot.  I like Detroit by a TD.