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6 PM ET -- College Football

399 East Carolina 
400 Liberty

Play 399 EAST CAROLINA +6.5 (-110)

Bet Size: 5%

Line Parameters:
5% play at +5 or better 
4% play at +4 or +4.5
3% play at +3.5
2% play at +3

This is just as much a play against Liberty as it is a play on ECU.  Liberty is 3-0 but hasn't covered a single spread yet and they looked very ordinary in struggles against Campbell, New Mexico State, and UTEP.  The Flames have failed to cover the spread by an average of 15.5 points per game.  So they're underachieving and now face by far their toughest test of the season to date.  They also lost a lot of skill position talent in the portal.

ECU is coming off its first loss of the season, 21-19 at home to Appy State.  QB Jake Garcia has thrown 8 INTs through three games.  That rate will not continue and Liberty's D has just 2 INTs on the season.  But here's the key to this game: Liberty likes to run the ball.  The problem for them is that ECU ranks 4th in the nation in yards allowed per carry (1.8), 18th in rushing yards allowed per game (73), and has allowed just ONE rushing touchdown this season.  Making the Flames one-dimensional makes them easier to defend.

Despite playing the tougher schedule so far, the Pirates' average scoring margin (+14.3) is larger than Liberty's (+13.7).  Make no mistake about it, ECU will take away Liberty's ground game.  The Pirates willingly let Appy State throw for 424 yards, yet only allowed 21 points.  I like ECU to pull the upset here (put a little on the money line), so the points look like a very generous bonus.