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6:40 PM ET -- MLB 

923 Houston Astros 
924 Cincinnati Reds

Play: 923 HOUSTON -136

List Pitchers: ACTION                          

Bet Size: 4%

Line Parameters: 
4% play at -145 or better 
3% play at -146 to -155 
2% play at -156 to -160

My MLB plays are determined by statistical data (standard and advanced metrics from fangraphs.com), history involving similar games and situations (researched through the SDQL database), and current market data.  A play is made when enough of these factors align.  The play's size is determined by how many of these factors align, how much value is perceived, and how confident I am about the play.  

KEY SITUATIONAL ANGLE(S):

Play ON rested non-division road favorites larger than -115 but smaller than -150.  102-43 (70.3%) since 2020.

Play AGAINST home underdogs with a win percentage better than 40% in Game 2 of a series if they won Game 1 as a home dog and their opponent's win percentage is below 60%.  43-18 (70.5%) since 2023.