I'm really liking the Dream's defense since the Olympic break. They've been allowing just over 76 points per game in that span, while the Mercury have been averaging just under 79 points per game. Both teams have also been playing at a slower pace, with the Dream ranking 12th and the Mercury 10th in pace since the break.

Given the slower tempo and the Dream's solid defensive performance, I think the Mercury will struggle to reach 80 points today. I'm leaning toward the Mercury team total under in this matchup.