4% Rotation #921: MLB Monday 4% OVER 7.5 -122 in New York Mets vs Boston Red Sox @ 7:10 ET - Right now, as of 5:20 AM ET, this over is available at 7.5 runs and -122 at FanDuel. At DraftKings the standard number is over 8 but one would have access to alternate total runs there which includes an option of over 7.5 at a -129 price. Slightly pricier than the standard offering at FanDuel as of 5:20 AM ET but worth an extra 7 cents if need be. Of course lines can move a lot in the marketplace as the day goes on as we all know so we could end up seeing 7.5 across the board here. Already we have seen this total drop from an opener of 8.5 to an 8 and now some 7.5 is popping up too! Let's take advantage of this market move and grab the value on the other side of the move. Certainly I do understand the move and what the markets are looking at but, as per usual, I have a contrarian viewpoint that really ramps up in intensity when I see value spots like this. The Mets have won 12 of 18 games. Yes, there have been a number of low-scoring wins in this run but winning breeds confidence and having confidence at the plate is a big key for teams. New York is making a push and they have scored an average of 5 runs per game during this 18-game stretch. As for the Red Sox, they are off B2B low-scoring losses at Detroit against the Tigers but look at what the Red Sox had been doing on the road in the 2nd half of the season before these B2B losses. Over a 19-game road stretch since their 2nd game after the break, Boston scored an average of 6 runs per game in those 19 road games! They will bounce back here and I expect the Mets to score well at home. Yes, the pitching match-up is keeping this total low but lets take a closer look at Bello and Severino. When Severino has faced tougher match-ups he has often struggled. He just allowed 4 earned runs at Arizona and this was the 4th time in 6 starts that he has allowed 4 or more earned runs! Now he faces a Red Sox team that has the #1 slugging percentage in the majors - .445 on the season away from home! As for Boston starter Bello, he has been impressive since the All-Star break and is coming off a strong start versus the Blue Jays. However, that solid outing was preceded by rough start versus the Diamondbacks. That start versus Arizona wrapped up a 4-start stretch in which he walked 13 batters in 22 innings. Watch the command issues cause him problems on the road here. The Mets have a .441 slugging percentage in night games this season which is #2 in the majors (by the way Boston is #3 in that category). So the point is BOTH of these lineups are being underestimated here! Yes I am aware that though the weather will be mild there will likely be a solid north wind blowing in but there are a lot of other factors here that are also important and the value is big here with such a low total. 4% OVER 7.5 -122 in New York Mets