3% Cincinnati (12:10 ET): This one goes early, so I’m giving it out free of charge. The Reds are in a situation I consistently fire on, that being at home and facing the prospect of a 4-game sweep. (You may recall I backed the Guardians in this same spot Wednesday and they came through). Actually, four of the last five teams across all of baseball that were in this spot have cashed. I refrained from taking what ended up being the lone loser of that group (it was the White Sox last Monday), but cashed with all four winners. I know the Reds have been a massive disappointment in the second half, and seem “dead” right now, but they are worth backing at this underdog price, IMO. 

Tobias Myers is starting for Milwaukee. Right off the bat, let’s note Myers is a guy whose xERA (4.23) sits more than a full run higher than his actual ERA (2.99), so he’s due for some regression. Myers also has a 4.15 FIP and he’s allowing 1.2 HR’s per nine innings. He allowed 2 HR’s last time out, a game where I cashed the Over and the Brewers lost 5-4 to the Giants. In fact, the team is just 2-3 in Myers’ last five starts and 4-6 his last 10. And that’s been with him overachieving on the mound. 

Looks like the Reds are going to go with Brandon Williamson, who will be making his first appearance of 2024. His lone rehab start down at Triple-A Louisville was good, allowing no runs in 2 ⅔ IP with four strikeouts. Williamson is a lefty, so I’ll note Milwaukee is 23rd in wRC+ against southpaws on the road. It likely won’t be a long leash for Williamson, but I still believe in this Reds’ bullpen, despite its recent efforts. While these teams have been trending in very different directions, the Reds still have a positive YTD run differential and are better than their won-loss record. Look for them to avoid the sweep Sunday. 3% Cincinnati (Play to -105)