3% Eastern Michigan (+2.5) over UMass — 

Both of these teams come into this season dealing with new transfers, but UMass has a lot of new pieces that need to be put into place. Eastern Michigan has added an experienced QB, Cole Snyder, who had a solid run at Buffalo throwing for over 5,100 yards and a 31-17 TD-INT ratio in the L2Y. 

Eastern Michigan is replacing the more essential position (QB), but UMass has a huge amount of production to replace, including their 1,000+ yard rusher. Lynch-Adams actually rushed for over 1,200 yards but took his talents to East Lansing, transfering to Michigan State in the off-season. The Minutemen lost over 87% of their rushing yards from LY, and nearly 70% of their receiving yards! 

This is only the 2nd time since 2007 UMass has started the season as a favorite (last was 2017), and they are 1-18 in their season opener, including 1-5 ATS in the L6. Eastern Michigan on the other hand is 5-1 ATS in their L6 season openers vs. FBS opponents. 

I do think this UMass team is improved, but it will take some time for the transfers to figure out how to work together, and putting them as a favorite this early in the season is something that I am going to jump on.