5% Arizona (9:40 ET): This is a critical weekend series out in the NL West where the Diamondbacks only trail the Dodgers by four games as we near the end of August. No team has been better since the All-Star Break than these D’backs, who went into yesterday with 30 wins in their last 40 games. That’s six more wins than every other team in baseball - save for the Padres - over that span. Now the D’backs did come up short Thursday, losing 3-2 to the Mets after giving up the go-ahead run in the top of the ninth. But I like them here, at home and as short underdogs, against Clayton Kershaw, who simply is no longer what he once was. 

The Dodgers are coming off a successful 7-2 homestand that concluded last night with a 6-3 win over the Orioles. LA is at a bit of a disadvantage tonight in that last night’s game didn’t end until 10:30 (ish) local time and now they have to travel. Meanwhile, Arizona was done in the afternoon and had no travel between series. But this is all about fading Kershaw, who gave up five runs in five innings his last time out and now has a 1.41 WHIP in six starts since returning from the IL. He’s also averaging a career-low 7.4 K’s per nine innings as his fastball velo is way down. In case you needed a reminder, the D’backs lead all of MLB in runs scored, averaging 5.33 per game (5.41 rpg at home). The Dodgers’ bullpen also has a 4.30 ERA since July 1st. 

Starting for the D’backs Friday will be Zac Gallen, who has traditionally always been a better pitcher at home. He has a 2.74 ERA at Chase Field the L2 seasons. Even more encouraging is that he went out and delivered six shutout innings, on the road, his last time out. The team has won his L3 starts here at home. While the Dodgers have a strong lineup in their own right, Arizona is one of the few that can claim to have a better one. They also have the better starter (and bullpen). Add it all up and I love the plus price on what has been the hottest team in all of baseball during the second half. While the Dodgers are tied for the best home record in baseball, they have been a money losing proposition on the road this season. 5% Arizona (Play to -120)