Velez Sarsfield vs Independiente Rivadavia
Argentina, Saturday, 5pm ET

Play: 3% Velez Sarsfield -0.75
Odds at Time of Release: -125
Line Parameter: Playable to -140, otherwise take Velez Sarsfield -1

Velez Sarsfield are having a tremendous season in the Liga Profesional in Argentina so far, sitting at the top of the league table with 24 points (W7 D3 L2), scoring 22 goals (best offense) and conceding just 8 goals (2nd best defense). They will now play host to newcomers Independiente Rivadavia, who are sitting at the middle of the standings with 15 points (W4 D3 L5), scoring 8 goals (2nd worst offense) and conceding 9 (3rd best defense). 

Velez Sarsfield are in tremendous form right now, coming off a massive 5-0 away win at Barracas Central and unbeaten in L/8 (W7 D1 L0), with that draw coming on the road. Even since last season, Velez have been one of the hardest teams to beat at home, where they have conceded just 1 goal in L/8 home matches. 

Velez have a +0.26 xG difference/game at home, while Independiente Rivadavia have a -0.40 xG difference/game on the road, so based on xG alone, taking Velez -0.75 checks out. 

Velez beat Independiente Rivadavia much easier than the final 1-0 score suggests back in April (on the road), generating 2.04 xG to Rivadavia's 0.39 xG. I expect them to be even better at home against a team that can't score easy goals. 

Take 3u on Velez Sarsfield -0.75 (-125), playable to -140