Union Santa Fe vs Deportivo Riestra
Argentina, Friday, 8pm ET

Play: Union Santa Fe -0.5
Odds at Time of Release: -129
Line Parameter: Playable to -140

Union Santa Fe are coming off a really bad 5-1 loss to Tigre, in a match where they made an awful lot of defensive mistakes that don't really fit their overall profile. For context, Union Santa Fe had conceded 5 goals in the first 11 matches of the season and then they conceded just as many last week against Tigres. But that match was on the road, now they are back home and looking to wash off that bad result against newcomers Deportivo Riestra. 

Union Santa Fe have the 2nd best home record in the league (W5 D1 L0), scoring 9 goals and conceding just 1 in the process. They have a +0.57 xG difference/game at home, while Deportivo Riestra have a -0.96 xG difference/game on the road, which is quite big of a difference.

Deportivo Riestra have been in solid form lately (W5 D0 L3), but all 5 wins came at home, where they actually have the best home record. But they are the complete opposite on the road (W0 D0 L5), scoring just 3 goals and conceding 11 in the process. In fact, Riestra have a W1 D3 L8 away record in 2024, with that sole win coming against the other newcomers (Rivadavia), and their 3 away draws all had red cards in them, so take those results with a grain of salt. 

Union Santa Fe did their own criticism and will be eager to get back on track after a bad result on the road. They have been REALLY hard to beat at home, and even harder to score against, while Deportivo Riestra have been quite bad on the road. Expecting a bounce-back from the home side, we ride with them. 

Take 3u on Union Santa Fe ML (-129), playable to -140. If odds move outside of that parameter you can take Union Santa Fe -0.75, which is a split line between Union Santa Fe -0.5 and Union Santa Fe -1.