3% Houston F5 RL (8:10 ET): Please note that this is a first five innings bet AND I’m playing the run line (-0.5). Yesterday, the Astros avoided a sweep in resounding fashion by crushing the Phillies 10-0. Meanwhile, the Royals thought they had a 4-game sweep locked up here in Cleveland, but (as I predicted) their bullpen melted down and blew the game (lost 7-5). I think those respective results from Wednesday afternoon will have a bit of a “carryover” type effect to this series opener and I’m projecting the Astros to have a big edge in this starting pitching matchup of Hunter Brown vs. Brady Singer. 

Brown is having a tremendous 2024 season. Not only has he allowed two runs or fewer each of his last four starts (and seven of his last eight), but he comes in with a 1.96 ERA and 0.98 WHIP the last three. So he’s in fine form at the moment. Yes, I am aware that Brown had a disastrous start in Kansas City back in April. But that was a long time ago, and as I’ve written many times before, this Royals’ lineup typically sees its production fall way off on the road (runs scored, batting average, walk rate). They benefited from the hitter-friendly environment of Progressive Field the L4 games. Here in Houston, visiting teams average just 3.83 runs per game, fourth fewest in all of baseball. 

Meanwhile, Kansas City’s Brady Singer has been trending in the WRONG direction as of late. He has a 5.65 ERA L5 starts after allowing five runs (on 11 hits) last Saturday against Philadelphia and that was at home. Singer’s ERA jumps by more than a full point when pitching away from Kauffman Stadium and he’s allowed twice as many HR’s (11) on the road compared to at home (5). He now has a 4.47 xERA for the season. If you’re wondering why I’m leaving the Royals’ BAD bullpen out of the equation (fair), it’s because the Astros have had their own bullpen adventures over the last week. My view is if they win this game and a  measure of revenge for getting swept earlier in the year at KC, it will be because they’re ahead after five innings. 3% Houston F5 RL (-0.5, Play to -130)