3% Under North Carolina/Minnesota (9:00 ET): We’ve seen this line flip to where UNC is now favored on the road. While I do prefer the Tar Heels in this Week 1 matchup, the better bet is to take the Under. What’s ultimately keeping me off the UNC side in this one is the uncertainty on offense in Chapel Hill. Not only must Mack Brown find a way to replace QB Drake May (who is off to the NFL) but the team’s best WR, Tez Walker, is also now gone. Needless to say, I don’t think we’ll be seeing anywhere near the same explosiveness on offense from the Tar Heels that we were accustomed to the last couple seasons. 

These teams met just last year, in the season opener, and North Carolina rolled to a 31-13 victory behind Maye’s 414 yards passing. The Tar Heels were up 21-3 in the 2Q. Minnesota did pull within 8 (21-13) early in the 3Q, but would not score again. I find it very interesting that the total this year is pretty similar to where the number closed LY (52) despite the lost firepower on the UNC offense. Now the road team (LY's game was in Chapel Hill), I just can’t see the Tar Heels coming close to LY’s point total with the combo of Max Johnson and Conner Harrell at QB. Also, Minnesota’s defense should be much improved in 2024 after slipping to 26.8 PPG allowed last season. Two years ago, the Golden Gophers were #4 in the country, allowing just 13.8 PPG. They have a lot of returning talent in the front seven this year. 

The Golden Gophers will also be breaking in a new QB this year as New Hampshire transfer Max Brosmer comes up from the FCS level. His job will be a lot more difficult here if RB Darius Taylor or top WR Daniel Jackson (both limited in practice) can’t go. Regardless, we’re going to see two run-heavy offenses in this one and that (theoretically) means the clock should keep moving. It’s the first game of the season and with new signal-callers, neither offense will be operating at peak efficiency. The UNC defense should also be improved under new coordinator Geoff Collins (former HC at Ga Tech) as well. Minnesota averaged just 20.9 PPG LY and they started the season 3-0 to the Under. 3% Under North Carolina/Minnesota (Play to 49)