Las Palmas vs Real Madrid
La Liga, Thursday, 3:30pm ET

Play: Real Madrid win & Under 4.5 Goals
Odds at Time of Release: -130
Line Parameter: Playable to -140

Real Madrid have kind of struggled in their first two matches of the La Liga, with a 1-1 draw away at Mallorca in MD1 and a 3-0 win at home against Valladolid in MD2. But they did struggle to break down Valladolid in that second match, with a goa-less draw in the first half and scoring 2 of 3 goals late in the match. Mbappe has not been good so far, he is struggling to the new setting of Spain, and they are also missing Bellingham. 

Now Real Madrid are playing at Las Palmas, who are coming off a 2-1 loss to Leganes on the road and they had a 2-2 draw at home against Sevilla in MD1. Las Palmas don't have the firepower to match Real Madrid, they will try to shut this game down in hopes to short-circuit Real Madrid's offense. 

Las Palmas changed their coach in the off-season and brought in Luis Miguel Carrion, who coached Real Oviedo in the 2nd division last season, and they were a pretty defensive team with a 27-15 to the Under 2.5 goals (and 14-7 at home), and 38-4 to the Under 4.5 Goals (and 18-3 at home). 

Real Madrid were 31-7 to the Under 4.5 Goals last season, and 17-2 on the road, which tells me that they don't go for big, fancy wins, they just want to get the job done effectively and move on to the next. Real Madrid actually have a tough match against Betis coming up, a team that has forced a LOT of draws in Madrid in recent years, so they will surely want to go to that match after a win, but they don't want to spend any unnecessary resources. 

One way or the other, Real Madrid need to win this, even if it's by "half to nil" as we say. I like Real Madrid to win and Under 4.5 Goals, with the 2-0 win for Real Madrid sitting at +550. 

Take 3u on a Same Game Parlay with Real Madrid win & Under 4.5 Goals (-130 at Draftkings), playable to -140