4% Over Mets/Diamondbacks (9:40 ET): Arizona pulled the ol’ “switcheroo” for yesterday’s game, making a starting pitching change. It backfired as Brandon Pfaadt ended up giving up eight runs, six of those earned, in 4 ⅔ IP. A 6-run fifth inning - where they sent 12 batters to plate - broke the game open for the Mets. Some sloppy fielding from the D’backs (2 errors) did not help their cause either. The game ended up as an 8-3 final and my expectation is that we’ll be seeing plenty of runs scored again tonight. Eduardo Rodriguez, originally supposed to start Tuesday, will be on the hill for Arizona. Meanwhile, it’s Luis Severino for the Mets, a clear downgrade from Sean Manaea yesterday. 

With a season-best 11 K’s, Manaea was able to keep the D’backs hitters in check. Don’t think that happens two nights in a row. Arizona, who is 26-9 since the All-Star Break, leads all of MLB in runs scored and that’s despite not having their two primary HR hitters (Marte and Walker). Since the Break, the D’backs are averaging over six runs per game. Severino does not have the same strikeout ability as Manaea. Not only is the former’s strikeout rate down to a career-low (7.4 per nine innings), but he has a 5.00 ERA over his L5 starts. Severino’s road ERA (for the season) is 4.63. He walks a lot of guys (3.1 per nine innings) and has a 4.27 FIP as well. 

When Rodriguez was still listed as the starter for Arizona yesterday, we had the same total and that was with a better opposing pitcher for the Mets. That’s what jumped out to me here. I’ve already been through why Severino is a downgrade from Manaea. I also don’t expect Rodriguez to pitch all that well against a Mets’ lineup now averaging 4.97 rpg on the road. Tonight marks Rodriguez’s 4th start since coming off the IL. He’s faced the two worst teams in the National League (Miami, Colorado) so far. His strikeout numbers haven’t been all that impressive either. Both bullpens are middle of the road. The offense should have their way in this one. 4% Over Mets/Diamondbacks (Play to 9.0)