3% Cleveland (1:10 ET): This shaped up as a massive series in the AL Central and (so far) it’s been all Kansas City, who has taken the first three games including a doubleheader sweep on Monday. Last night, there was a LONG rain delay here in Cleveland (2+ hours) and the Guardians might as well have not even come back out of the dugout as they were retired in order five straight times. The 6-1 victory by the Royals moved them into a first place tie in this division, but as I’ve said many times before, it’s REALLY hard for a road team to sweep a 4-game series. I’ll be at Progressive Field this afternoon and will back the home team. 

Yes, I’m aware that KC starter Michael Wacha is 7-0 with a 2.40 ERA in 10 starts since June 22nd. And the team is a perfect 5-0 the last five times Wacha has taken the mound. But, for the season, he still has a 4.32 xERA and 3.76 FIP. The real trouble for the Royals in this afternoon’s game comes when the bullpen is called into duty. Not only does their pen have the seventh highest ERA in all of baseball, but it was called into duty extra-early last night after Michael Lorenzen had to leave with an injury in the 2nd inning. Six different relievers were used, including three of their high-leverage guys for a second day in a row. Both Hernandez and McArthur pitched multiple innings. 

So a Cleveland bullpen with the lowest ERA in all of baseball has a clear edge today. In particular, Emmanuel Clase (0.59 ERA) hasn’t allowed a run in over a month. As good as Wacha has been for the Royals lately, I still give the Guardians the starting edge with Tanner Bibee. The team is 18-7 with him on the mound this season. While they’ve lost his last two starts, the Guards have not lost three consecutive times with Bibee on the mound in 2024. Bibee is 4-0 in day time starts this season with a 0.85 WHIP. All of Kansas City’s key offensive numbers (runs scored, batting average, walk rate) drop substantially on the road. While despite their recent struggles, Cleveland still averages 4.86 rpg (#7) at home. Having been first in the AL Central since April (154 days) including a 9-game lead as recently as June 26th, this is the biggest game of the Guardians’ season and I think they will deliver. 3% Cleveland (Play to -160)