3% Over Giants/Brewers (8:10 ET): Logan Webb is not the same pitcher on the road as he is at home. To that point, the Giants’ right-hander has a 4.11 ERA and 1.44 WHIP out on the highway. (Those numbers are 2.26 and 0.97 at Oracle Park). Obviously, Oracle is known for being pretty pitcher-friendly, so this split shouldn’t come as a total shock. Oddsmakers know this, but the Under is still 35-29-2 in Giants’ home games, tied for the 6th highest Under percentage in all of baseball. But out on the road, similar to what we see with Webb, there’s a major shift. The Giants have the 2nd highest Over percentage in the league (37-25-3, 59.3%). 

Tuesday, Webb and the Giants take their act to American Family Field in Milwaukee, home of the second highest Over percentage in all of MLB (35-21-6, 62.5%). The Brewers average 4.69 runs per game at home this season, which is top 10. Not only should they benefit from facing Webb at home, but also a Giants’ bullpen that is bottom seven in ERA. The last time Webb started, the Giants’ pen gave up four runs in the top of the ninth to lose to the White Sox. Over the weekend, the Brew Crew scored 24 runs in three games at Oakland. So they’re already in good form coming into the series. 

Fortunately for the Giants, they will get to face Tobias Myers tonight. Myers is someone I believe is due for some regression. There’s a big delta between his actual (2.87) and expected (4.11) ERA. I’m a bit shocked that the rookie has now allowed 2 ER or less in seven consecutive starts, but Myers only lasted 4 IP last time out and he has a 3.99 FIP. The Giants’ lineup ranks 6th in home runs hit on the road (85). I would not at all be surprised if they hit 1 or 2 off Myers here, plus the Milwaukee bullpen has started to slip since the All-Star Break. Look no further than Myers’ last start, which ended up being a 10-6 loss to St. Louis. 3% Over Giants/Brewers (Play to 8)