4% Over Astros/Phillies (6:40 ET): When handicapping Monday’s baseball card each week, one of the first things I do is check what the teams who played Sunday night are doing. Fading teams off Sunday Night Baseball is generally a good idea (especially if travel is involved) and in this particular instance, there is no denying what a tough spot this is for the Astros. They are coming off a hard-fought 4-game split in Baltimore, a series the ‘Stros probably feel they should have won, considering they led most of the way in every game. Now they have to travel to Philadelphia where the Phillies are 42-23 this season. Not only did the Phils just put up 11 runs both Saturday & Sunday (on the road), but they will also have their ace on the mound Monday (Zach Wheeler). 

Further compounding matters for Houston tonight is that their starter, Ronel Blanco, seems to be in the throes of regression. After giving up five runs his last time out (in just 3 2/3 IP), Blanco now has a 5.09 ERA in his last five starts. Can’t say I’m shocked that regression is starting to set in for the right-hander. Despite a 3.14 ERA, his xERA is closer to 4.00 and he has a FIP of 4.36. That last start marked the third time in those last five starts that Blanco allowed three or more runs. Now he’s going to have to face a lineup that’s not only scored 22 runs the L2 games, but also averages 5.31 rpg at home (#2 in MLB). 

Wheeler starting for the Phillies would seem to be the final nail in Houston’s Monday “coffin, however, I’ve got faith that an Astros lineup that has still scored 13 runs the L3 games (w/o Yordan Alvarez) can put runs on the board here. Alvarez could return and you also have to remember the Phillies’ bullpen is not particularly good (4th worst ERA since start of July). So the runs for the Astros could come late, after Wheeler is yanked. Given the rising price on the Phillies for this series opener (justified), the Over is definitely a better “value” as these are two of the top 12 scoring teams and a low total. Wheeler is not immune to getting “beat up.” He allowed 7 runs to the Yankees here at home last month. 4% Over Astros/Phillies (Play at 8.0 or lower)