7:10 PM ET -- MLB 

977 Philadelphia Phillies  
978 Kansas City Royals

Play: 977 PHILADELPHIA -117

List Pitchers: ACTION                          

Bet Size: 5%

Line Parameters: 
5% play at -125 or better 
4% play at -126 to -130
3% play at -131 to -135
2% play at -136 to -140

My MLB plays are determined by statistical data (standard and advanced metrics from fangraphs.com), history involving similar games and situations (researched through the SDQL database), and current market data.  A play is made when enough of these factors align.  The play's size is determined by how many of these factors align, how much value is perceived, and how confident I am about the play.  

KEY SITUATIONAL ANGLE(S):

Play AGAINST underdogs that are on at least a 2-game win streak if it's not the last game of a series and their starter is coming off a Quality Start in his last start.  40-22 (64.5%) since April 30th.

Kansas City is 0-6 this season in home night games against lefty starters.
Average Line: KC -126.4
Average Score: Opponents 7, Royals 3.5

ADDITIONAL NOTES:

KC's 0-6 home mark listed above comes as little surprise, as the Royals own a weak 84 wRC+ against lefties at home, which ranks 26th out of 30 MLB teams and is 16% below the league average.

Philly's Ranger Suarez is making his first start since July 22nd, as he comes off the 15-day IL.  Suarez had a back issue, but he's clearly ready to go.  Suarez has pitched very well this season and has been slightly better on the road when looking at many of his numbers.