2% A's Team Total OVER (7:10 ET): The A's won last night by a score of 9-4 and 7 of those runs came in the first three innings, almost all of them against former teammate Paul Blackburn. They don't need half of that run production today to go Over their team total, which I find curious because they're up against David Peterson, one of the biggest overachievers when it comes to actual (3.34) and expected (5.42) ERA. 

That gap of 2.08 between actual vs. xERA is 5th largest among all qualified pitchers. Furthermore, Peterson is a lefty and this A's lineup has been mashing southpaws over the last month or so. Since July 1st, the A's have posted a MLB-best 154 wRC+ against left-handed pitching. 

Peterson also has a higher ERA and WHIP at home than on the road. There is a ton of regression signs all over his profile, including 3+ walks in four of his last five starts. Oakland is guaranteed to come up to bat in all nine innings here and beyond Peterson, you've got a Mets' bullpen that ranks in the bottom half when it comes to ERA and WHIP. This is a good matchup for an A's lineup that has scored 17 runs the past two games. 2% A's Team Total Over (3.5)