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(901) Los Angeles Dodgers at (902) Philadelphia Phillies

(901) Los Angeles Dodgers at (902) Philadelphia Phillies
July 10, 2024 7PM EDT
Play Rating:
3% – (901) Los Angeles Dodgers at (902) Philadelphia Phillies Total Over 9.5 (-108) Action

3% Take Philadelphia - LA Dodgers OVER (#901-902) (action)

I’m 10-2 with my last dozen MLB totals, and this excerpt from several recent write-ups still rings true today: 

“MLB games are not independent of one another, particularly when it comes to totals. Overs beget more Overs -- hot lineups and worn down bullpens don’t disappear into thin air.  Similarly, Unders beget more Unders -- cold lineups and fresh bullpens can stay that way for weeks on end. So when teams start to streak with their totals, I pay close attention, especially at this time of the season, as the bats start to heat up with the weather.”

The Dodgers are 9-1 to the Over in their last ten, the only Under cashing by a half run in a game with five home runs (four of them solo shots).  This is absolutely a trend worth riding in ‘hitter friendly’ Citizens Bank Ballpark tonight with a strong 15+ mph wind blowing out to left center field -- the sharp $$ has poured in on the Over tonight.  The Phillies, too, are trending Over: 6-2 to the Over in their last eight games.  Yesterday’s ten run outburst came with Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper both back in the lineup after stints on the DL, making the second most potent offense in the NL even more potent.  LA, of course, has the single highest scoring lineup in the NL. 

The series history here? Every meeting between these two teams since the start of the 2023 season has produced nine runs or more, one Slugfest after the next.  This is an ‘action’ wager, but it’s surely worth noting that Gavin Stone is coming in off his worst start since April; Christian Sanchez is off his single worst start of the season.  Expect crooked numbers on the scoreboard throughout.  Take the OVER.

Line Parameter: 3% at 9.5 or lower, 2% at 10 or higher.

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