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Adam Trigger

Adam Trigger

(911) Minnesota Twins at (912) Chicago White Sox

(911) Minnesota Twins at (912) Chicago White Sox
July 10, 2024 2PM EDT
Play Rating:
4% – Chicago White Sox +1.5 (-123) B Ober (RHP), E Fedde (RHP) Must Start

Not much has changed here other than the fact this will be part of a doubleheader so I’m going to go ahead and play it.   Lost 5 cents of value but it is what it is.   Still a worthwhile move IMO.

I will repost the full write up here…

***Write up from yesterday's game that got rained out.  Everything still applies to Game 1 today***

White Sox (8:10PM ET BSN, NBCSCH, MLB.TV) – Tigers end up not needing the +1.5 in a 1-0 win and that’s now a nice bounce back with back-to-back winners. It will be tough to replicate a 33-14 month of June but I’m certainly going to try and we will look to make it three straight when the Chicago White Sox continue a three game set with the Minnesota Twins at Guaranteed Rate Field in Chicago, Illinois.

Minnesota is a perfect 8-0 against the White Sox this season but I don’t think the win/loss disparity tells the full story of how competitive this series has been.  The White Sox covered the +1.5 in the first two games of a series on the South Side earlier this season and took a 6-5 game into the 9th before giving up four runs in an eventual 10-5 win in the series finale.  In last night’s series opener Minnesota managed to cover the +1.5 in the 11th inning winning 8-6 in a game they trailed 5-2 into the 7th and went to multiple extra frames.  Minnesota is 17-4 in their last 21 games against the White Sox since the start of last season but 14 of those 21 games have been decided by 3 runs or less either way.  The White Sox are 3-5 ATS (against the +1.5) in the 8 meetings this season, in two of those 5 ATS losses Minnesota covered the -1.5 IN THE 9TH INNING OR LATER so I think the White Sox are going to end up on the right side of one of these sooner than later and it could very possibly be here. 

A big reason for that is Erick Fedde who gets the ball in what could very well be his final start in a White Sox uniform.  Fedde is 31 years old with a very manageable contract so it’s a near certainty the White Sox will try to cash in on his great first half and ship him to a contender for a prospect or two.  I don’t think what Fedde has done this season is a fluke, I watched him all year last season dominate the KBO with a sweeper he worked on during his time with NC Dinos and it’s translated to the big leagues as Fedde has 94 strikeouts and just 28 walks across 106.1 innings pitched this season.  Fedde’s numbers get even more impressive at home, at Guaranteed Rate Field he’s 4-1 with a 1.64 ERA in seven starts and he was fantastic against the Twins in Minnesota earlier this year striking out a career high 11 batters in one of those games the White Sox lost but managed to cover the +1.5.  Tommy Pham is another veteran enjoying a resurgence on the South Side that likely gets shipped out somewhere, he was out of the lineup with a dental issue on Monday but should be back here and is a boost to a White Sox offense that needs it. If the White Sox can get anything going offensively, I think Fedde will have them in position to finally get a win over the Twins here.

Minnesota counters with Bailey Ober, he’s been solid of late and solid during his career against the White Sox (3.63 ERA in 11 starts) but the White Sox had a beat on him earlier this season and I’m hoping some of that familiarity pays off here.  Ober gave up four runs on 6 hits to the White Sox back on May 1st and his three strikeouts in that game is one of his lowest strikeout tallies of the season.   Ober has been on a nice run but he’s also benefitted from as favorable of a stretch as you can ask for (Pirates, A’s twice, Mariners and Tigers) so I don’t think it’s a stretch to say a White Sox lineup that’s seen him plenty is actually a tougher assignment here.  Yesterday’s game went into 11 innings and the Twins and White Sox used 7 and 5 relievers respectively, something I look at as a bit of an equalizer since a used up bullpen hurts Minnesota more than it hurts the White Sox (IMO).  I believe that to be true because the White Sox are already priced as a bad team with a bad bullpen while the Twins typically have a respectable relief unit.  With both bullpens likely limited after yesterday’s 11 inning game I think that hurts Minnesota more than it does the home team here. 

I’ve had bets in multiple of these and have watched most of all 8 of the Twins wins over the White Sox this season.  This series has been less one sided than the record suggests and I think this one ends up being a battle and the +1.5 is good either way here.  Play on White Sox +1.5 (-118) for 4% (or 4 units)

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