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Pavlos Laguretos

Pavlos Laguretos

(225597) England at (225598) Netherlands

(225597) England at (225598) Netherlands
July 10, 2024 3PM EDT
Play Rating:
1% – REGULATION Bellingham to be carded (+310)

Netherlands vs England
EURO Semi Final, Wednesday, 3pm ET

Play: Bellingham to be carded
Odds at Time of Release: +310
Line Parameter: Playable to +250

This is a very interesting game for the following reason: this match is refereed by German Felix Zwayer, who was suspended for 6 months on a match-fixing scandal back in 2005 but he still came back to referee official matches. And one of those matches was a Der Klassiker Derby in the German Bundesliga between Dortmund and Bayern Munich, back when England's Jude Bellingham was playing for Dortmund. Bellingham was really vocal after Dortmund's 3-2 loss, in a match where he complained about a penalty kick that was not given to him, and for another penalty kick that was given to Bayern. He stated after the match, and I quote "You give a referee that has match-fixed before the biggest game in Germany - what do you expect?".

Fast forward to today, these two meet again under different circumstances, as Felix Zwayer was appointed as the referee of the semi final between England and the Netherlands. And some things have not been forgotten. I am thinking outside the box here and if Bellingham does as little as look Zwayer the wrong way, he is going to be carded. 

Jude Bellingham to be carded is at a juicy +310 and we are going to take 1u on that. He can be carded for a foul, for dissent towards the referee, for time wasting (if England are in the lead) and even if he scores another late goal, where he might take his shirt off in celebration. After all, cards are swiped after the semi-finals, so there is no chance for him to miss the final on a suspension. He has seen a card 13 times in all competitions this season, he got a card against Slovakia in the round of 16 and even got a card in a friendly match against Brazil back in March. 

I think Bellingham will write his name in the game-sheet, either through a card, or through a goal/assist. He is at +250 to score or assist, so if we bet an equal stake (say 1u) on these two props, we might have ourselves a lot of possible ways to get paid. For now we will take 1u on Jude Bellingham to be carded (+310) and the "to score or assist" prop might be loaded as soon as we see the lineups. 

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