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Las Vegas Cris

Las Vegas Cris

(901) Los Angeles Dodgers at (902) Philadelphia Phillies

(901) Los Angeles Dodgers at (902) Philadelphia Phillies
July 10, 2024 7PM EDT
Play Rating:
5% – Philadelphia Phillies -124 C Sanchez (LHP) Must Start

5% PHI ML (-124) action/listed

writeup added

- Several indicators pointed to PHI being one of our top plays of the season this evening. One of the most important is the return of Schwarber and Harper. A ton of the algorithms used to set lines consider things like offensive production last 2 weeks, 1 month, etc. Forward projections are how we can exploit the books.

- PHI offense over the last 14 days is bottom 10 in baseball (not factoring in last night's blowout). After losing their top two lefty bats they dropped to 22nd in the league vs RHP. But if you go back to their production before the injuries, they were 4th in baseball vs righties. The fall-off makes perfect sense, but now the studs have returned. This is a problem for Stone (LAD); against lefties, he has a 4.69 xFIP and 1.40 WHIP. The Phillies typically have 5 lefties in their lineup and often go up to 6 or 7 when a RHP is on the mound. Stone faced PHI last season and allowed 8 hits and 4 earned runs in 4 innings (only 1K). No doubt he has improved this year, but there are advanced indicators signifying it may be a bit of fool's gold. In his last 6 games, he faced COL twice, a terrible CHW team, KC (in LA; KC is much better at home), and a struggling Yankee offense. AZ beat him around a week ago and we expect a similar start vs PHI.

-The Dodgers have an excellent offense, it is never fun fading a team with several dangerous bats. But, if anyone can stymie them, it's Sanchez at home. On the season his home ERA is 1.35 with a 0.90 WHIP. The numbers only get better from there. Last 6 home starts: 1.05 ERA / 0.79 WHIP. L3: 0.39 ERA / 0.57 WHIP. It must be noted that the wind is soaring out today in PHI, Sanchez is well equipped to handle that wind because he generates a 62% ground ball rate.

-The Phillies have a significant bullpen advantage as the Dodger's relievers are in a major slump. PHI relievers are #1 in xFIP over the L14, L30, and on the season. LA's pen is ranked 28th and 29th in xFIP over those spans.

Look for the addition of Harp and Scharb to boos this PHI time for a few games and take advantage until the books catch up.

Good luck!

Listed/listed is fine if your book does not allow you to select pitchers. Avoid action/action if possible because we want Sanchez for PHI.

Full analysis will be sent out in the morning.

Heritage has -121
Fanduel and BOL at -124 currently
Good to -153

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