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Las Vegas Cris

Las Vegas Cris

(905) Washington Nationals at (906) New York Mets

Event:
(905) Washington Nationals at (906) New York Mets
Sport/League:
MLB
Date/Time:
July 10, 2024 7PM EDT
Play Rating:
3%
Odds:
-103
Play:
3% – (905) Washington Nationals at (906) New York Mets Total Over 9.0 (-103) P Corbin (LHP), L Severino (RHP) Must Start
Result:
Loss
Analysis

3% WASH/NYM over 9 (-105) listed/listed

There is only one team in baseball that has more success vs lefties than the Mets. Over the last 30 games, they are hitting .281 with a .347 OBP and 0.849 OPS off southpaws. They get the pleasure of facing one of the worst LH starters in all of baseball - Patrick Corbin.

Corbin faced the Mets in June; he surrendered 6 runs on 7 hits before exiting with one out in the 6th. He has allowed 3+ earned runs in 67% of his starts this season; good enough for a 5.5 ERA.

Severino is no ace out there. He has allowed 17 runs over his last 4 starts against mediocre opponents. Most recently he was rocked around by the Pirates who have arguably the worst offense in the game. The WASH offense is thought of as cellar-dwellers, but they are actually above average vs RHP over the last 14 and last 30 days.

Our modeling has this total approaching 10.5 over 1000 simulations. Play the over

Good to -125
drop to 2% at 9.5

 

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