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Ross Benjamin

Ross Benjamin

(959) Atlanta Braves at (960) Arizona Diamondbacks

Event:
(959) Atlanta Braves at (960) Arizona Diamondbacks
Sport/League:
MLB
Date/Time:
July 9, 2024 9PM EDT
Play Rating:
3%
Odds:
-120
Play:
3% – (959) Atlanta Braves at (960) Arizona Diamondbacks Total Under 7.5 (-120) C Sale (LHP), Z Gallen (RHP) Must Start
Result:
Loss
Analysis

Think about this. Arizona has averaged 7.8 runs scored per outing over their last 8 games. Yet, the total in this game is 7.5. Regardless of 2 elite starting pitchers facing each other tonight, the oddsmakers are begging you to bet on this game going over the low number. Well, I'm not taking the bait.

Truth be told, Atlanta has gone over the total in just 21 of their last 77 games or just 27.3% of the time. Atlanta's team batting average is 32 points lower on the road than it is at home. Chris Sale has been terrific over his last 5 starts with a 1.97 ERA/o.84 WHIP and averaged 6.4 innings pitched per outing. Even more impressive is the star lefthander has made 9 starts in game this season and recorded a superb 1.53 ERA/0.76 WHIP, averaged 6.6 innings pitched per outing, and allowed a mere 2 homers in 59.0 innings pitched. The Atlanta bullpen is #2 in MLB when it comes to ERA and #3 in WHIP.

Zac Gallen has been sharp in 2 starts since returning from the DL while collecting a 2.70 ERA/0.90 WHIP. During 6 home starts this season, Gallen has posted an outstanding 1.72 ERA/0.95 WHIP while averaging 6.1 innings pitched per outing. Give me this game to go under the total.

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