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Bryan Power

Bryan Power

(977) Seattle Mariners at (978) San Diego Padres

Event:
(977) Seattle Mariners at (978) San Diego Padres
Sport/League:
MLB
Date/Time:
July 9, 2024 9PM EDT
Play Rating:
3%
Odds:
120
Play:
3% – San Diego Padres +120 L Gilbert (RHP), A Mazur (RHP) Must Start
Result:
Loss
Analysis

3% San Diego (9:40 ET): Even after taking into account the starting pitching matchup of Logan Gilbert vs. Adam Mazur, I believe the wrong team is favored here in this annual Interleague rivalry. Seattle, whose lead in the AL West has shrunk rather dramatically, simply isn’t the same team away from home. While the Mariners are #1 in all of baseball in the fewest number of runs allowed per game at home, that number jumps nearly two full runs on the road. Home or away, the M’s have been a bottom four offense in terms of runs per game this season. We’re also talking about a team that has dropped six consecutive series and has lost 12 of its last 17 games. 

As I’ve stated numerous times before, I came into 2024 higher than the market on the Padres, a team that was definitely better than its record last season. Currently, the Padres hold the second Wild Card spot in the National League, though it was not a good series over the weekend against the D’backs (lost 2 of 3). But the team has won its last four series openers here at Petco while averaging an impressive 7.5 rpg. They are also 3-0 in Mazur’s L3 starts. The rookie right-hander is facing a Mariners’ lineup that is striking out more than 10 times per game, so I am anticipating him pitching well in this spot. 

San Diego has the better lineup in this matchup, reinforced by the fact that four of their nine everyday players are heading to the All-Star Game. Gilbert is Seattle’s only All-Star and while he has had success in the past against the Padres, I just don’t think that alone justifies this price range. The Mariners are a woeful 19-25 on the road this season. Among all teams currently above .500, only the Royals have a worse road record. The Padres are far more profitable to bet on as underdogs than as favorites, so let’s grab them at the plus price. 3% San Diego (Play to -105)

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