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Bryan Leonard

Bryan Leonard

(955) Washington Nationals at (956) New York Mets

Event:
(955) Washington Nationals at (956) New York Mets
Sport/League:
MLB
Date/Time:
July 9, 2024 7PM EDT
Play Rating:
2%
Odds:
-128
Play:
2% – New York Mets -128 J Irvin (RHP), J Quintana (LHP) Must Start
Result:
Win
Analysis

956 Washington at NY Mets

Jake Irvin is having a very good season with a 2.80 ERA and 1.00 WHIP. His BB% is in the 80th percentile, and his Extension is in the 91st percentile. That said, he is about league average in every other key metric. He’s only in the 23rd percentile in Average Exit Velocity, and 23rd percentile in Hard Hit Rate. Which means when he gets hit, he gets hit hard. Which is why the 2.80 ERA jumps to 3.60 in xERA. 

After back to back years of ERA’s under 3.60, Jose Quintana has taken a step back this season. But he has pitched better of late, and we really like his matchup in this one. Being an experienced lefty that throws five pitches, we expect him to keep the Washington bats silenced. When looking at wRC+ on the season vs southpaws, Washington comes in 28th, with an 82. Which is 18% worse than league average, and only better than the Cardinals and the Marlins. 

PLAY NY METS

Good to -138

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