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Bryan Power

Bryan Power

(967) Minnesota Twins at (968) Chicago White Sox

Event:
(967) Minnesota Twins at (968) Chicago White Sox
Sport/League:
MLB
Date/Time:
July 9, 2024 8PM EDT
Play Rating:
3%
Odds:
-118
Play:
3% – Chicago White Sox +1.5 (-118) B Ober (RHP), E Fedde (RHP) Must Start
Result:
No Play
Analysis

3% Chi White Sox +1.5 (8:10 ET): First off, my condolences to anyone who had the White Sox +1.5 last night as they blew a 5-2 lead and lost 8-6 in 11 innings. That makes the Twins a perfect 8-0 against the Sox this season with six or more runs scored in seven of the victories. However, a majority of the games have been close, including three by exactly one run. In 6 of the 8 games, the White Sox have held a 2-run lead. My “gut” tells me that the White Sox are finally going to break through tonight and win, but as last night showed the beleaguered bullpen is difficult to trust. I feel more comfortable betting with the +1.5 run in my pocket. 

The key to tonight’s handicap is that Chicago starter Erick Fedde is a lot better at home. Fedde’s problem has been that he just doesn’t get all that many opportunities to pitch here at Guaranteed Rate Field. Six of his last seven starts have come on the road. Now, last time out, he went six innings and allowed just one run on three hits in Cleveland as the White Sox went on to pick up a surprising 8-2 win (as +191 ML underdogs). At home this season, Fedde is 4-1 with a 1.64 ERA and 0.91 WHIP. Look for the former KBO standout to pitch well here. Should also be noted - as a whole - the White Sox staff is allowing a full run less per game at home compared to on the road. 

It’s been just the reverse for Minnesota starter Bailey Ober, whose ERA is nearly a full run and a half higher on the road compared to at Target Field. While Ober did pick up a win here on the Southside back on May 1st, it’s not like he pitched all that well. He gave up four runs and had just three strikeouts over six innings. Fedde pitched much better than that in his lone career appearance vs. the Twins (April 23rd) when he allowed just one run in six innings with 11 strikeouts and zero walks. 3% Chi White Sox +1.5 (Play to -135)

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