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Pavlos Laguretos

Pavlos Laguretos

(225593) France at (225594) Spain

Event:
(225593) France at (225594) Spain
Sport/League:
UEFA
Date/Time:
July 9, 2024 3PM EDT
Play Rating:
0.5%
Odds:
350
Play:
0.5% – REGULATION Jesus Navas to be carded (+350)
Result:
Win
Analysis

Spain vs France
EURO Semi Finals, Tuesday, 3pm ET

Play: Jesus Navas (Spain) to be carded
Odds at Time of Release: +350
Line Parameter: Playable to +300

Jesus Navas is 38 years old now, not as fast as he used to be, and nearing the end of his career. Due to the suspension of Carvajal, Spain will now have to start Jesus Navas at the right back position, which means that he will be in charge of guarding Mbappe. Mbappe is not having a good tournament, and there's a good reason for it, as he broke his nose against Austria and he's been using a mask, which narrows his line of sight and is generally very uncomfortable for him, as he said himself. But his speed is unparalleled, and he kind of "owes" a good performance, so I expect Mbappe to give Spain a lot of trouble down that flank. 

Jesus Navas is not exactly a card-machine, but again, he is 38 years old and he is tasked to guard one of the fastest players on the planet, so he will have his hands full for most of the match. Now he usually doesn't get early cards, with 14 of his L/17 cards coming in the second half, and most of them past the 70th minute or so, so if you take this bet don't worry if he doesn't get one early, as he tends to get more cards towards the end of the match when fatigue kicks in on his "old" legs. If you have access to live betting you might want to wait and bet this live, as you will get better odds as the match progresses, but with the risk of Navas getting the card early.

Jesus Navas is at +350 to be carded and we are going to take 0.5u on that, and also keep in mind that Le Normand (starting center back) is also suspended, so Spain will deploy Nacho to fill the position. Nacho is at +280 to be carded and is also a good option here, playable as a single, but also in a Same Game Parlay along with Jesus Navas to be carded (this 2-player card parlay is at +1250). 

Take 0.5u on Spain's Jesus Navas to be carded (+350)
 

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