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Bryan Leonard

Bryan Leonard

(979) Toronto Blue Jays at (980) San Francisco Giants

Event:
(979) Toronto Blue Jays at (980) San Francisco Giants
Sport/League:
MLB
Date/Time:
July 9, 2024 9PM EDT
Play Rating:
5%
Odds:
-121
Play:
5% – San Francisco Giants -121 Y Kikuchi (LHP), B Snell (LHP) Must Start
Result:
Win
Analysis

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980 Toronto at San Francisco

Giants return home for the rest of their games through the All-Star break. They just faced two playoff contenders in the Braves and Guardians and managed to split the six contests. Blake Snell returns from the IL with plenty of reasons to turn around his season. He enters with a terrible 9.51 ERA and 1.94 WHIP. His career numbers are a 3.35 ERA and 1.25 WHIP. While the results have not been there, much of the damage was due to bad luck. The 9.51 ERA is extremely out of whack when looking at his 4.77 wERA. His walk rate is 1.5% better than last year in his 2.25 ERA season. This is a nine year veteran who didn’t sign until the last minute. So his first half of the season was basically his Spring Training. Now with extra time to work out his mechanics, we feel he will be a bargain pitcher betting wise the rest of the year. 

Yusei Kikuchi comes in with a 4.12 ERA and 1.31 WHIP. Slightly better numbers than his career 4.64 ERA and 1.37 WHIP. While his extension is in the 91st percentile, other than his 79th percentile in fastball velocity, his other numbers are pedestrian. A 9th percentile average exit velocity, a 12th percentile barrel rate, and a 9th percentile hard hit rate. Opposing batters are hitting him hard and often. His maximum exit velocity is at a career high 119.2. 

From a hitting standpoint San Francisco  has a 116 wRC+ vs lefties, while the Blue Jays hit southpaws at a 93 wRC+ clip. That 23% offensive advantage, as well as a solid 25-19 home park, put us squarely on the Giants in this contest.

PLAY SAN FRANCISCO

Good to -140


 

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