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Pavlos Laguretos

Pavlos Laguretos

(235749) Canada at (235750) Argentina

Event:
(235749) Canada at (235750) Argentina
Sport/League:
SOC
Date/Time:
July 9, 2024 9PM EDT
Play Rating:
5%
Odds:
-115
Play:
5% – (235749) Canada at (235750) Argentina 1H Total Under 1.0 (-115)
Result:
Push
Analysis

Argentina vs Canada
Copa America Semi Finals, Tuesday, 8pm ET

Play: 1H Under 1 Goal
Odds at Time of Release: -115
Line Parameter: Playable to -135

Argentina are 4-0 to the Under 2.5 Goals so far in the Copa America, while Canada are also 4-0 to the Under 2.5 Goals (and 2-2 to the Under 1.5 goals), while the two teams also met in Game 1 of the group stage, where Argentina won by 2-0. In the recent World Cup Qualifiers, Argentina are 5-1 to the Under 2.5 Goals, and the only match that went to the Over was a 3-0 at Bolivia, in a match where Bolivia saw an early red card in the first half, and Argentina scored the 3rd goal at the 83rd minute, so take that result with a grain of salt, as it was on track to be an Under. 

As for first half totals, Argentina's first half totals so far in the Copa America are 1/0/0/0, and Canada's first half totals are also 1/0/0/0. I think there is a maximum of a single goal in the first half, which would mean that our bet is pushed, but I definitely think it's MUCH more likely to see a goal-less draw than to see 2+ goals in the first half. 

Canada have no reason to open up against Argentina, they will try to keep this as tight as possible and hope for a chance through a counter attack. But the logic is the same, the longer this game goes without goals, the better for Canada and their chances. After all there is no extra time after a Draw, the match goes straight to penalty kicks, where anything can happen. 

As for Argentina, they have been shutting down those first halves for quite a while now and, to be fair, they haven't exactly been eye-popping in the offense, Messi is kind of struggling, so their biggest weapon right now is the defense. If there's gonna be a goal in the first half, it's probably gonna come from Argentina, but don't expect to see another. 

The 1H Asian Total is set at 1 goal, and we definitely LOVE the Under 1 Goal, as Canada will try to minimize the damage and Argentina are always very tight in first halves. There is nothing to suggest a high-scoring first half, so we ride hard with the 1H Under 1 Goal (-110). Again, worst case scenario there is one first half goal and we get a push, but if this match is played 100 times, about 80-90 of them would have 0 or 1 goals. And as a last thought, Copa America semi-finals have always been tight. 

Take 5u on 1H Under 1 Goal (-115), play to -135
 

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