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Bryan Power

Bryan Power

(907) Atlanta Braves at (908) Arizona Diamondbacks

Event:
(907) Atlanta Braves at (908) Arizona Diamondbacks
Sport/League:
MLB
Date/Time:
July 8, 2024 9PM EDT
Play Rating:
2%
Odds:
-103
Play:
2% – Arizona Diamondbacks +1.5 (-103) C Sale (LHP), Y Diaz (RHP) Must Start
Result:
No Play
Analysis

2% Arizona +1.5 (9:40 ET): So I get that this starting pitching matchup is a little scary if you’re looking to back Arizona here. Which, spoiler alert, I am going to do. But I'm doing so on the run line, giving us a 1.5 run “head start.” The D'backs may not be as good as last year (when they made it all the way to the World Series!) But they are a .500 team with a positive run differential. Getting them +1.5 at home, at basically even money, is something I'm not going to pass up. 

The D’backs are calling up Yilber Diaz, who actually began the year in Double-A. That being said, I think Diaz gives the D’backs a better shot to win than Jordan Montgomery would have. (This was originally Montgomery's turn it was in the rotation). In his last start for Triple-A Reno, Diaz had 13 strikeouts and didn’t allow a single hit over 6 innings. At one point, he struck out seven consecutive batters. Over 76 IP in the minors this season, Diaz had 106 K’s. So he’s a big strikeout guy. In addition to only being 20th in wRC+ since June 6th, this underachieving Braves' lineup is also 24th in K-rate during that time. 

Chris Sale is obviously having a fantastic season, his best since 2018. We're talking about a guy tied for the most wins in all of MLB (11) as well as top eight in ERA and strikeouts. However, the Braves are only 3-3 in Sale's last six starts including losses to the likes of the White Sox and A's. In that start against the A's, Sale actually allowed eight runs. Atlanta has been a big money burner all season, especially on the road where they have a losing record (20-22). 2% Arizona +1.5 (Play to -120)

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