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(903) St. Louis Cardinals at (904) Washington Nationals

Event:
(903) St. Louis Cardinals at (904) Washington Nationals
Sport/League:
MLB
Date/Time:
July 8, 2024 4PM EDT
Play Rating:
3%
Odds:
-104
Play:
3% – St. Louis Cardinals -104 Action
Result:
Win
Analysis

3% Take St Louis (#903) (action)

Don’t be fooled for a minute by the Cardinals 47-42 record, slightly above .500.  The Cardinals started the season 15-24.  They’re 32-18 over their last 50 games, playing .640 baseball, like the Phillies or the Orioles, the two most profitable teams to support in MLB full season this year.  St Louis is finding a way to win series -- their last five, to be exact.  And very quietly, waaaaaay underneath the radar, the Cardinals are now 10-1 in their last 11 series closeout games; very much a ‘bet-on’ team in this situation.

The overachieving Nats have come back to earth, just 4-9 in their last 13 games.  Their bats have cooled off, their bullpen finally showing real signs of vulnerability -- in sharp contrast to the Cardinals bullpen which has been dominant, top quartile in MLB bullpen ERA.

This is an ‘action’ wager based more on current form than any other factor.  That said, Mile Mikolas dominated Washington in two starts against them last year.  The Cardinals are 6-3 in his last nine starts and Mikolas has thrown six quality starts in his last eight trips to the hill.  Washington’s Mitchell Parker has allowed five home runs in his last three outings; with only two quality starts in seven tries since the beginning of June. And with late money showing for the home team, you can find the Cardinals at a ‘plus price’ as I write this, worthy of a 3% wager!  Take the Cardinals

Line Parameter: 3% at -110 or better, 2% at -111 or higher

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