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Dwayne Bryant

Dwayne Bryant

(909) Cleveland Guardians at (910) Detroit Tigers

Event:
(909) Cleveland Guardians at (910) Detroit Tigers
Sport/League:
MLB
Date/Time:
July 8, 2024 6PM EDT
Play Rating:
4%
Odds:
-137
Play:
4% – Cleveland Guardians -137 G Williams (RHP), K Montero (RHP) Must Start
Result:
Loss
Analysis

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6:40 PM ET -- MLB 

909 Cleveland Guardians   
910 Detroit Tigers

Play: 909 CLEVELAND -137    

List Pitchers: ACTION                        

Bet Size: 4%

Line Parameters: 
4% play at -145 or better 
3% play at -146 to -155
2% play at -156 to -160

My MLB plays are determined by statistical data (standard and advanced metrics from fangraphs.com), history involving similar games and situations (researched through the SDQL database), and current market data.  A play is made when enough of these factors align.  The play's size is determined by how many of these factors align, how much value is perceived, and how confident I am about the play.  

KEY SITUATIONAL ANGLE(S):

Play AGAINST underdogs on a 2+ game winning streak if it's not the last game of a series and their starter is coming off a Quality Start in his last outing.  30-9 (77%, 27% ROI) since April 30th.

Play AGAINST divisional home underdogs who were on the road for at least their last 7 games.  29-16 (64.4%, 12.4% ROI) since 2021.

Cleveland is 14-2 (87.5%, 50.9% ROI) this season (9-0 since May 1st) when on a 2+ game winning streak if their starter walked more than 1 batter in his previous start.

Cleveland is 17-6 (74%, 51.1% ROI) on the road this season when the opposing starter's previous opponent's starter allowed at least 3 earned runs.

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