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Pavlos Laguretos

Pavlos Laguretos

(224205) Lincoln Red Imps at (224206) Hamrun Spartans

Event:
(224205) Lincoln Red Imps at (224206) Hamrun Spartans
Sport/League:
UEFA
Date/Time:
July 9, 2024 12PM EDT
Play Rating:
2%
Odds:
100
Play:
2% – REGULATION Lincoln Red Imps +0.75 (+100)
Result:
Win
Analysis

Hamrun vs Lincolnd Red Imps
Champions League Qualifiers, Tuesday, 12:45pm ET

Play: Lincoln Red Imps +0.75
Odds at Time of Release: +100
Line Parameter: Playable to -115

The first round of qualifiers for the Champions League are starting this week, and we got a lot of shady teams from unpopular leagues, but that doesn't mean that there are not opportunities to be taken advantage of, or bookie mistakes. And I think we might have found one, as Maltese champions Hamrun are playing host to Lincoln Red Imps who also won the domestic title in Gibraltar. Twilight Zone, I know, but hear me out here

Hamrun are -157 favourites, the Draw is at +300 and Lincoln Red Imps are +361, with the Asian Spread set at 0.75, and we like the visitors (Lincoln) here. This Asian Spread line opened at 1 but it slipped past my radar, now it's at 0.75 and we're still going to invest 2u on Lincoln Red Imps +0.75. You can't give me +0.75 goal on a Lincoln team that won 16 of their last 17 matches (W16 D1 L0) and only lost 3 of 29 domestic matches last season. And all 3 wins came by a margin of 1 goal, and in this case, if they lose by exactly 1 goal, half our bet is returned. 

Both these leagues are rather equal in terms of strength (or lack thereof), and even though Hamrun did a good job at home, they didn't win that many matches by two goals or more. This is the first leg, so Lincoln know that they must keep this tight and even if they lose, they need to do it by the smallest of margins, as they have the second leg at home and they can overturn it. 

To be honest, I wouldn't be surprised if Lincoln Red Imps pulled an "upset" here, in the form of a Draw or a win, and even though we didn't catch the good number (Lincoln +1), we will still take Lincoln +0.75 (+100), which is a split line between Lincoln +1 and Lincoln +0.5. 

That way, half our bet is returned if they lose by exactly 1 goal, we win a full payout if they win or draw, and we only lose if Lincoln lose by 2 goals or more. 

Taking it slow in these qualifiers, but we will take 2u on Lincoln Red Imps +0.75 (+100)

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