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Adam Trigger

Adam Trigger

(909) Cleveland Guardians at (910) Detroit Tigers

Event:
(909) Cleveland Guardians at (910) Detroit Tigers
Sport/League:
MLB
Date/Time:
July 8, 2024 6PM EDT
Play Rating:
4%
Odds:
-130
Play:
4% – Detroit Tigers +1.5 (-130) G Williams (RHP), K Montero (RHP) Must Start
Result:
Win
Analysis

There's a couple things going on here that lead me to a play on the Tigers.

First, not all rehab stints are created equal and things have not gone well for Gavin Williams coming off an elbow injury that delayed the start of his 2024 season.

Williams has actually been back since May 30th taking an absolute beating at AAA with Columbus, so much so that they dropped him down to AA Akron where he was better followed by a start against a watered down Omaha lineup which I guess was enough to justify calling him up to make his 2024 Guardians debut last week. 

In 5 starts (just 12 innings) at AAA Williams posted a 6.00 ERA 1.75 WHIP and .286 batting average against.  The 20 strikeouts were encouraging enough where I didn't play against him in his Cleveland debut against the White Sox (I had every intention to but didn't get the price I wanted on White Sox +1.5) but (as i suspected) Williams was hammered by a poor White Sox lineup for 5 runs on 7 hits in 4 innings with just two strikeouts in a 8-2 loss to arguably the worst team in baseball.

I've bashed Detroit all season long but there's no question Tigers on the road is the toughest test yet for Williams in 2024 and he's failed at just about every other rehab checkpoint so I'm not expecting him to have a ton of success here.  I also don't think there's any chance he pitches deeper than 4-5 innings so, while the Guardians have an elite bullpen, they likely wont have Gaddis or Clase as both pitched in back to back 5-4 wins against the Giants.  

Keider Montero was someone I wrote about a couple times for Toledo earlier this season, he ended up getting a couple starts derailed by weather and the call up on May 29th against the Pirates was last second and out of necesity so I'm not going to hold that outing against him.  I'll also give him a pass for the loss to the Phillies but there was some good in that one with the career high 6 strikeouts.  Last time out Montero put it together and notched his first big league win going 6.1 innings and giving up just 2 runs to the Twins.

Montero is 24 but he's hardly been rushed to the bigs as he signed with Detroit way back in 2017!  Montero has made big strides up the ladder in the Tigers organization the past two seasons, I've seen signs of things clicking for him at AAA Toledo and last time out against the Twins and I think any sort of respectable effort has the Tigers in position to beat the Guardians here.

Play on Tigers +1.5 (-130) for 4% (or 4 units)

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