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Adam Trigger

Adam Trigger

(971) San Francisco Giants at (972) Cleveland Guardians

Event:
(971) San Francisco Giants at (972) Cleveland Guardians
Sport/League:
MLB
Date/Time:
July 7, 2024 1PM EDT
Play Rating:
4%
Odds:
-130
Play:
4% – Cleveland Guardians -130 H Birdsong (RHP), C Carrasco (RHP) Must Start
Result:
Win
Analysis

Guardians (1:40PM ET NBCSBA, BSGL, MLB.TV) – Padres couldn’t cash in on bases loaded no outs in the 10th so we settle for a split on Saturday and after a monster June the first week of July will be a losing week.  We can grab a few units back and generate some momentum into the new week with a win on Sunday so I’ll take a shot in the rubber match of a three game set between the Cleveland Guardians and the San Francisco Giants at Progressive Field in Cleveland, Ohio.

I’ve had a lot of success over the past month playing against AAA guys the market doesn’t have priced correctly and I think we have another one with Hayden Birdsong here.  With so many injuries to pitchers it’s become common place to rush kids to the big leagues out of pure necessity and that’s what the Giants have had to do with Birdsong due to lack of any better starting pitching options at this point.  I’m honestly surprised this hasn’t gotten more attention, the Giants have essentially been rolling with two starting pitchers for a month now with guys like Blake Snell, Keaton Winn, and Robbie Ray on the IL.  The situation will improve, and looked to be solved with Kyle Harrison returning yesterday but he lasted just 3.1 innings meaning the Giants essentially had back to back bullpen days so far in this series. Birdsong was more of a “shot in the dark” a couple weeks ago when guys like Harrison, Snell and Ray all weren’t ready and Spencer Howard getting designated for assignment as he’s obviously not a viable option and room needed to be made for guys coming back.  Birdsong had only made the jump to AAA a few weeks ago and was suspect in two AAA starts so there’s no way a promotion to the big leagues was anything more than a prayer that Birdsong could make it through five without getting crushed to save a very tired Giants bullpen.  For the most part that’s what Birdsong has done, he’s gone 4.2 and 5 innings respectively giving up a total of 10 hits, 5 runs, 5 walks and 10 strikeouts in 9.2 innings.  Birdsong even managed a win against the Braves earlier this week but I think on the road against the Guardians is a different animal than the struggling Cubs and cold Braves.   

The Giants needed a bullpen game on Fri and used 4 RPs yesterday so the SF bullpen is thin here.   Cleveland has one of the top relief units in the league, the Guardians have greater than a -130 advantage here IMO.

Play on Guardians -130 for 4% (or 4 units)

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